7月行业信息思考：“反内卷”对消费量、价、利润基本面的影响

Group 1: Historical Insights - The previous supply-side reform period (2016-2017) saw significant pressure on consumption profits due to insufficient transmission of cost pressures from upstream resources and raw materials, leading to a general decline in profit growth across the consumption sector [1][12][21] - During the 2016-2017 period, despite strong demand-side policies, the ability of the consumption sector to pass on cost increases was limited, resulting in a divergence between revenue and profit growth [1][12][17] - Consumer confidence index rose from 103.7 in December 2015 to 122.6 in December 2017, indicating a strong demand environment during the previous reform [12][17] Group 2: Current "Anti-Internal Competition" Insights - The current "anti-internal competition" policy is expected to impose more stringent constraints on supply, particularly in sectors like automotive and express delivery, which may stabilize prices more quickly compared to the previous reform period [1][21] - The consumption sector is facing a more severe demand-side challenge now, with consumer confidence at low levels and growth relying more on "value-for-money" rather than brand premium pricing [1][21] - In July, the retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.826 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, but the growth rate significantly slowed from June's 13.3% [1][21] Group 3: Sector-Specific Observations - In the energy and resources sector, coal demand is expected to rise during peak seasons, with July's domestic raw coal production at 42.107 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [22][23] - The real estate sector experienced a significant decline in transaction volume, with July's average daily transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities down 32.3% month-on-month and 18.6% year-on-year [35][37] - The manufacturing sector showed resilience, with strong performance in machinery and equipment exports, and heavy truck sales performing well [5][10]