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楼市成交同比连降九周
HUAXI Securities·2025-08-09 12:42

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The real estate market shows a mixed performance with both declines and growth in different segments and regions. Overall, the transaction volume of second - hand and new houses has been fluctuating, with some cities experiencing significant drops while others showing growth [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Second - hand Housing Transaction - Overall Situation: From August 1 - 7, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 15 cities was 1.82 million square meters, with a 9% week - on - week decline and a 1% year - on - year decline, having declined for nine consecutive weeks year - on - year [1]. - By City Tier: - First - tier Cities: The week - on - week decline was 13%, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen down 20%, 11%, and 1% respectively. Year - on - year, after eight consecutive weeks of decline, there was a 1% increase, with Shenzhen and Shanghai up 4% and Beijing down 4% [1]. - Second - tier Cities: The transaction area declined for three consecutive weeks, with a 7% week - on - week decline this week. Some cities like Hangzhou dropped 22%, while Nanning increased 37%. Year - on - year, it declined 8% [2]. - Third - tier Cities: The transaction area declined for two consecutive weeks, with a 7% week - on - week decline this week. Some cities like Foshan, Jiangmen, and Dongguan had drops, while Yangzhou increased 11%. Year - on - year, it increased 27% [2]. 3.2 New Housing Transaction - Overall Situation: From August 1 - 7, the transaction area of new houses in 38 cities was 1.88 million square meters, with a 23% week - on - week decline and a 12% year - on - year decline, having declined for nine consecutive weeks year - on - year. The year - on - year decline in August 1 - 7 was - 12%, better than - 17% in July but weaker than - 8% in June and - 10% in May [2]. - By City Tier: - First - tier Cities: The week - on - week decline was 32%, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen down 45%, 33%, 23%, and 2% respectively. Year - on - year, it declined for nine consecutive weeks, with a 36% decline this week, and the decline in Shenzhen was the largest at 69% [3]. - Second - tier Cities: The week - on - week decline was 18%. Some cities like Suzhou, Hangzhou, and Wuhan had significant drops, while Chengdu and Nanning increased. Year - on - year, it declined 3% [3]. - Third - tier Cities: The week - on - week decline was 24%, with some cities like Wenzhou, Chizhou, etc. having large drops. Year - on - year, it increased 2% [3]. 3.3 Key City Observations - First - tier Cities: - Second - hand Housing: The week - on - week decline was 13%, and the year - on - year increase was 1%. Compared with last year's high, the transaction volumes of Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen were 50%, 59%, and 44% of the high respectively [21]. - New Housing: The week - on - week decline was 32%, and the year - on - year decline was 12%. Compared with last year's high, the transaction volumes of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen were 22%, 30%, 33%, and 15% of the high respectively [22]. - Other Key Cities: - Hangzhou: The second - hand and new housing transaction areas declined by 22% and 42% respectively compared with the previous week, and were 42% and 9% of the 2024 high respectively [23]. - Chengdu: The second - hand housing transaction area declined by 9%, and the new housing transaction area increased by 16% compared with the previous week, and were 48% and 41% of the 2024 high respectively [23]. 3.4 Housing Price Observation - From July 28 - August 3, the week - on - week changes in the second - hand housing listing prices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen were + 0.10%, - 0.26%, and - 0.15% respectively. Compared with the week before the "924" policy last year, they all declined, with drops of 1.3%, 7.1%, and 6.3% respectively [49].