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流动性跟踪:资金利率至阶段性低位
Tianfeng Securities·2025-08-09 13:07
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the inter - bank liquidity presented a pattern of "stable and loose, low - level and low - volatility, and policy support". Seasonal loosening was dominant, and large - scale open - market maturities were the main disturbance, but the loose pattern remained. The central bank actively provided support, and the synergy between fiscal and monetary policies was enhanced. The net lending scale of large - scale banks recovered rapidly, and the supply of liquidity was relatively abundant. The money market rates showed low - level and low - volatility characteristics, approaching a stage low [1]. - The seemingly "unexpected" launch of the repurchase with bond ownership transfer was actually in line with the requirements of "maintaining abundant liquidity in monetary policy" and "synergistic efforts of fiscal and monetary policies". Whether the treasury bond trading operation will be restarted this month is also worth looking forward to. Next week, although there will be more disturbances, the overall money market still has support, but the volatility may increase, and the upward pressure on money market rates is controllable, while the downward space awaits the injection of incremental liquidity [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Funds Rate Reaches a Stage Low - At the beginning of the month, funds seasonally loosened. Although there were large - scale open - market maturities, the loose pattern of the money market remained. The launch of the 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month repurchase with bond ownership transfer on August 8 showed the central bank's intention to support and the synergy between fiscal and monetary policies. The net lending scale of large - scale banks quickly recovered to over 4 trillion yuan. The primary - market prices of certificates of deposit (CDs) remained stable, and the secondary - market prices declined [11]. - The money market rates fluctuated at a low level throughout the week, possibly reaching a stage low. DR001 approached 1.3%. After the launch of the repurchase with bond ownership transfer on August 8, the money market rates declined further, and the fluctuation range narrowed significantly compared with the previous week [12]. - The seemingly "unexpected" launch of the repurchase with bond ownership transfer was in line with policy requirements. It is a quantity - based monetary policy tool, and its signal significance lies more in the operation scale than in the operation price. Whether the treasury bond trading operation will be restarted this month is worth anticipating [21][23]. - Although there may be resonance of disturbances in the money market in mid - August, with the central bank's pre - emptive support and the possible marginal mitigation of tax payment pressure, the fluctuations will be more controllable. The money market rates may have reached a stage low, and further downward movement depends on the injection of incremental liquidity. How the central bank operates and whether the net lending scale of large - scale banks can be maintained are important observation factors [24]. 3.2. Open Market: Next Week's Maturity Scale Drops Slightly but Still Exceeds One Trillion Yuan - From August 4 to August 8, the open - market net injection was 163.5 billion yuan, an increase compared with the previous week. Among them, 7 - day reverse repurchase injections totaled 1.1267 trillion yuan, with maturities of 1.6632 trillion yuan, and 3 - month repurchase with bond ownership transfer injections totaled 700 billion yuan. From August 11 to August 15, the open - market maturities will be 1.1267 trillion yuan [3][31]. - The central bank withdrew the cross - month liquidity, but the stable trend of funds remained. The balance of reverse repurchases continued to decline but was still above the seasonal level. As of August 8, the balance of reverse repurchases was 1.1267 trillion yuan, a decrease of 536.5 billion yuan compared with August 1 [33]. 3.3. Government Bonds: Next Week's Issuance Scale Increases - This week, the net payment of government bonds was 370.6 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance of government bonds is 351.4 billion yuan, including 260 billion yuan of treasury bonds and 91.4 billion yuan of local government bonds. The net payment of treasury bonds will be 372.4 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds will be 37.7 billion yuan [42]. 3.4. Excess Reserve Tracking and Forecast - It is predicted that the excess reserve ratio in August 2025 will be about 0.90%, a month - on - month decrease of about 0.07 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.52 percentage points. It is predicted that the excess reserves at the end of July will be about 3.0668 trillion yuan. From August 4 to August 8, the open - market net injection was 163.5 billion yuan, the net payment of government bonds was 370.6 billion yuan, the predicted fiscal revenue - expenditure gap was - 120 billion yuan, and the reserve requirement was 26.2 billion yuan [50][51]. 3.5. Money Market: DR001 Approaches 1.3% - As of August 8, compared with August 1, DR001 decreased by 0.23 basis points to 1.31%, DR007 increased by 0.09 basis points to 1.43%, R001 decreased by 1.32 basis points to 1.34%, and R007 decreased by 3.26 basis points to 1.45% [53]. - The overnight and 7 - day SHIBOR rates decreased by 5.65 and 8.11 basis points respectively compared with the previous week to 1.31% and 1.44%. The overnight and 7 - day CNH HIBOR rates increased by 8.29 and 5.23 basis points respectively compared with the previous week to 1.22% and 1.45% [58]. - The weekly average rates of FR007S1Y and FR007S5Y decreased by 0.98 and 2.23 basis points respectively compared with the previous week to 1.52% and 1.57%. The weekly average rates of six - month national - share transfer discount and six - month city - commercial transfer discount increased by 0.1 percentage points respectively compared with the previous week to 0.68% and 0.79% [61]. - The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 8.1091 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.3925 trillion yuan compared with the period from July 28 to August 1. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's new pledged national debt repurchase was 2.186 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.97 billion yuan compared with the period from July 28 to August 1 [63]. 3.6. Certificates of Deposit 3.6.1. Primary Market: Next Week's Maturity Scale Approaches One Trillion Yuan - From August 4 to August 8, the total issuance of CDs was 774.7 billion yuan, and the net financing was 190.9 billion yuan, an increase in both issuance scale and net financing compared with the previous week. By issuer, city - commercial banks had the highest issuance scale and net financing. By maturity, 6 - month CDs had the highest issuance scale, and 1 - month CDs had the highest net financing [73]. - The weighted average issuance term of CDs this week was 6.4 months, longer than the previous week's 5.86 months. Among them, the weighted average issuance terms of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city - commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 6.5, 7.4, 6.2, and 6.5 months respectively, with changes of 1.07, 0.69, 0.59, and - 0.08 months compared with the previous week [77]. - In terms of issuance success rate, joint - stock banks had the highest rate. By maturity, 1 - month CDs had the highest issuance success rate. By credit rating, AA - rated CDs had the highest issuance success rate [79]. - Next week, the maturity scale of CDs will be 905 billion yuan, an increase compared with this week. The maturities are mainly concentrated in national - share banks and city - commercial banks, and the terms are mainly concentrated in 3 - month, 6 - month, and 1 - year [83][84]. 3.6.2. Secondary Market: Yields Decline - After the month - end, the seasonal loosening of funds and the large - scale launch of repurchase with bond ownership transfer led to a continuous decline in the secondary - market yields of CDs. The yields of CDs of all maturities and ratings decreased [95][96].