高频跟踪周报：地产成交继续缩量-20250809

Report Information - Report Title: High - frequency Tracking Weekly Report 20250809 - Report Date: August 9, 2025 Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The real - estate new home transactions declined both on a week - on - week and year - on - year basis, falling below the seasonal level, and further policy support is needed. The movie box office recovered, while the migration scale index dropped. Industrial production in the production field was stable, and infrastructure construction maintained resilience. In terms of investment, the consumption and price of rebar were divergent, and cement demand declined. The commodity futures market ran smoothly with differentiated performance among varieties, with lithium carbonate, iron ore, and polysilicon generally rising [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Demand - Real - estate: This week, the transaction area of commercial housing in 20 cities declined on a week - on - week and year - on - year basis, significantly below the seasonal level. The transaction area of second - hand housing in key cities also decreased overall. For example, in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou, the second - hand housing transaction areas all decreased on a week - on - week basis. The current real - estate supply and demand are weak, and more active real - estate easing policies may be needed in the second half of the year, such as further relaxing purchase restrictions in core cities, lowering mortgage interest rates, and reducing down - payment ratios. On August 8, Beijing announced a new housing purchase policy, allowing eligible families to buy an unlimited number of properties outside the Fifth Ring Road [3][4][14]. - Consumption: Movie box office recovered. As of the week ending August 1, the daily average retail sales of passenger cars increased by 41.0% on a week - on - week basis but decreased by 7.7% year - on - year. As of the week ending August 8, the national movie box office increased by 4.7% on a week - on - week basis and was stronger than the same period last year. The national migration scale index decreased by 5.0% on a week - on - week basis, and the subway passenger volume in first - tier cities declined [42]. 2. Production - Mid - upstream: The operating rate of Tangshan blast furnaces, petroleum asphalt plants decreased on a week - on - week basis. As of the week ending August 8, the operating rate of Tangshan blast furnaces dropped by 1.1 pct to 82.6%, the operating rate of rebar increased by 0.3 pct to 44.3%, the operating rate of PTA decreased by 2.5 pct to 76.2%, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Yangtze River Delta region decreased by 0.9 pct to 90.7%, and the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants decreased by 1.4 pct to 31.7% [50]. - Downstream: The operating rate of the automotive industry declined slightly. The operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires in the automotive industry decreased on a week - on - week basis, and the absolute value of the semi - steel tire operating rate remained at a seasonal high. The trade - in subsidy policy continued to boost domestic demand and may support the production side in the short term [50]. 3. Investment - Rebar's apparent consumption recovered, but its price decreased. As of the week ending August 8, rebar's apparent consumption increased by 3.6% to 211 tons, and its price decreased by 1.0% to 3392.8 yuan/ton. The asphalt price decreased by 2.7% to 3535 yuan/ton. The cement price decreased by 0.6% to 103.8 points, the cement shipping rate decreased by 0.7 pct to 39.2%, and the cement inventory - to - capacity ratio decreased by 0.1 pct to 62.6% [66]. 4. Trade - Export: Port throughput decreased, and container shipping prices generally declined. As of the week ending August 8, the port's container throughput decreased by 8.5% on a week - on - week basis, lower than the level of the same period last year. The CCFI composite index dropped by 2.6% on a week - on - week basis, with the European route rising by 0.53% on a week - on - week basis, and the freight rates of the US West and US East routes decreasing by 5.56% and 5.14% respectively on a week - on - week basis. In addition, the BDI index continued to decline, dropping by 3.9% on a week - on - week basis [79]. - Import: The container shipping price decreased slightly, and the CICFI composite index was 673.9 points, down 0.9% on a week - on - week basis [79]. 5. Prices - CPI: The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices increased by 0.7% on a week - on - week basis. Vegetable prices rose, while egg, pork, and fruit prices declined. Specifically, vegetable prices increased by 3.3% on a week - on - week basis, pork prices decreased by 0.4% on a week - on - week basis, egg prices decreased by 0.8% on a week - on - week basis, and fruit prices decreased by 1.0% on a week - on - week basis [8][90]. - PPI: The Nanhua industrial product price index decreased by 1.3% on a week - on - week basis. The spot price of Brent crude oil decreased by 3.4% on a week - on - week basis, the WTI crude oil futures price decreased by 5.2% on a week - on - week basis, the IPE UK natural gas futures settlement price increased by 0.7% on a week - on - week basis, the COMEX gold futures price increased by 2.5% on a week - on - week basis, and the LME copper spot price decreased by 0.6% on a week - on - week basis. The commodity futures market ran smoothly with differentiated performance among varieties. This week, lithium carbonate, iron ore, soda ash and other commodity futures led the gains, while caustic soda, coking coal, and glass led the losses [8][98][109]. 6. Interest - rate Bond Tracking - Next week (August 11 - 15), the planned issuance of interest - rate bonds is 385.4 billion yuan, with a net financing of 173.5 billion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance of government bonds is 260 billion yuan, with a net financing of 164.4 billion yuan; the planned issuance of local bonds is 91.4 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 13.7 billion yuan; the planned issuance of policy - bank bonds is 34 billion yuan, with a net financing of 22.9 billion yuan [9][115]. - As of August 8, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year has exceeded 94.2%, reaching 1.883 trillion yuan. The cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds is 68.2%, reaching 545.6 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance progress of new special bonds is 64.0%, reaching 2.8179 trillion yuan [9]. 7. Policy Weekly Observation - The central bank has increased its gold holdings for the 9th consecutive month. As of the end of July, China's gold reserves were reported at 73.96 million ounces (about 2300.41 tons), an increase of 60,000 ounces (about 1.86 tons) compared with the previous month [126][127]. - Multiple policies were introduced this week, covering pre - school education, finance supporting new industrialization, bond valuation, monetary policy, industrial policy, and real - estate policy, etc. For example, the State Council issued an opinion on gradually promoting free pre - school education; seven departments jointly issued a guiding opinion on financial support for new industrialization; the central bank will conduct a 700 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation [127][128].