海外周度观察：美国贸易协议中的“虚虚实实”-20250809

Trade Agreements and Tariffs - As of August 1, the U.S. has established a three-tier tariff system, with effective tariffs at 7.9% compared to a theoretical rate of 18.3%[1][2][15]. - The U.S. has reached trade agreements or suspensions with nine economies, covering 49.7% of its import scale, with Germany at 4.6%, Japan at 4.2%, and South Korea at 3.6%[1][12]. - The U.S. tariff revenue for Q2 2025 reached $64 billion, a 3.6 times increase from the previous year, with total imports at $819.4 billion[1][15]. Investment Commitments - The EU must increase its annual investment in the U.S. by 2.6 times to meet its commitment of $600 billion over three years, which is challenging due to reliance on private sector funding[3][20]. - Japan's commitment of $550 billion requires an annual investment of $1.833 billion, which is 4.7 times the 2024 investment flow[3][22]. - South Korea's $350 billion commitment represents 19% of its GDP and 53% of its annual budget, necessitating an eightfold increase in annual FDI to the U.S.[3][23]. Long-term Tariff Risks - U.S. tariff income has reached $125.6 billion in 2025, 2.3 times higher than in 2024, with projections of $300 billion by the end of 2025[4][34]. - The U.S. is shifting its tariff strategy from "exchange rate adjustment" to "fiscal control" to manage trade deficits, indicating a long-term reliance on tariffs as a negotiation tool[4][38]. - The U.S. may continue to impose secondary tariffs on countries that import Russian oil, with potential rates reaching 100%[4][42].