Changjiang Securities·2025-08-09 15:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company's total electricity generation in the first half of 2025 reached 120.621 billion kWh, a decrease of approximately 6.41% compared to the adjusted data from the same period last year. Excluding the impact of asset injection, the electricity generation in the second quarter decreased by 4.23% year-on-year [2][6] - The average on-grid electricity price for the first half of the year was 0.517 RMB/kWh, a slight decrease of 0.007 RMB/kWh compared to the adjusted data from the previous year. The stability in electricity prices is attributed to the increased proportion of high-priced gas-fired electricity and the decline in total electricity generation [2][6] - The average price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal in the second quarter decreased by 216.84 RMB/ton, indicating significant cost optimization that has led to continuous improvement in the company's operations [2][6] Summary by Sections Electricity Generation and Pricing - In the first half of 2025, the company completed a total electricity generation of 1206.21 billion kWh, down 6.41% year-on-year. The average on-grid electricity price was approximately 517.12 RMB/MWh, a decrease of 1.37% from the previous year [6][12] Cost Optimization - The coal price has significantly decreased, with the average price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal at 631.61 RMB/ton in the second quarter, down 216.84 RMB/ton year-on-year. This cost reduction is expected to positively impact the company's performance despite revenue pressures [12][17] Capacity Expansion - As of the end of 2024, the company has approved and under-construction capacity totaling 9.32 million kW, including 2.66 million kW of coal-fired units and 2.1634 million kW of gas-fired units. The operational capacity as of August 7, 2025, reached 77.4446 million kW, with ongoing projects expected to contribute to performance growth [12][17] Financial Projections - The company is projected to have EPS of 0.62 RMB, 0.62 RMB, and 0.66 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.66, 8.56, and 8.02 [12][17]