煤炭：煤价重回长协价之上，7月进口煤同比-22.9%

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to reverse deflation, with July's PPI down 3.6% year-on-year, continuing a downward trend. The strong correlation between PPI and coal prices suggests that coal prices need to stabilize. The lowest point for coal prices in 2024 may represent a policy bottom, with expectations for more supply-side policies to be introduced. Given the unclear demand-side changes, coal prices are expected to fluctuate upward amidst volatility, with a focus on high-quality core stocks as primary targets [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The coal index rose by 3.65% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.41 percentage points. Year-to-date, the coal index has dropped by 7.08%, while the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 4.32%, indicating a significant underperformance of the coal index compared to the broader market [15][22]. 2. Thermal Coal 2.1 Key Indicators - As of August 8, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price was 682 CNY/ton, up 2.9% week-on-week, but down 19.4% year-on-year. The average daily output from 462 sample mines was 5.624 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 150,000 tons [3][27][33]. 2.2 Annual Contract Price - The annual contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 668 CNY/ton as of August 2025, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.4% [28]. 2.3 Spot Prices - Domestic prices for thermal coal showed mixed trends, with significant increases in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, while Shanxi saw a slight rise. The price for Inner Mongolia's high-quality coal reached 547.8 CNY/ton, up 5.6% week-on-week [33][40]. 2.4 Supply and Demand - The operating rate of coal mines in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions was 80.1%, with a slight decrease from the previous week. The daily consumption of the six major power plants increased to 93.3 million tons, up 6.5% week-on-week [41][46]. 3. Coking Coal 3.1 Key Indicators - As of August 8, 2025, the price for coking coal at the Jing Tang Port was 1610 CNY/ton, down 4.2% week-on-week. The average daily output from 523 sample mines was 755,000 tons, reflecting a decrease of 2.79% from the previous week [80][81]. 3.2 Spot Prices - The price for coking coal in Henan rose significantly by 5.8% week-on-week to 1460 CNY/ton, while prices in Anhui also saw a notable increase [82][84].