中泰期货尿素周报：印度尿素招标价格、投标数量均大幅上涨，中国尿素有望出口印度市场-20250810

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The Indian urea tender price and the number of bids have increased significantly, and Chinese urea is expected to be exported to the Indian market [1] - Currently, there is basically no agricultural demand, and the compound fertilizer industry is producing based on sales, with some enterprises entering the maintenance period. The downstream demand for compound fertilizers is expected to increase month - on - month, but it is difficult to drive up the urea price significantly, only providing some support [5] - The current spot market is relatively weak, and it is expected that the policy pressure to restrict exports is relatively small. Near the contract roll - over period, one should seize the medium - term opportunities brought by short - term rhythm fluctuations [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - Supply: From August 1st to August 28th, 2025, the weekly average daily output of urea increased from 18.98 tons to 19.86 tons. Last week, 4 new enterprises stopped production, 4 stopped enterprises resumed production, and this week, it is expected that 0 enterprises will plan to overhaul, and 1 stopped enterprise will resume production [5] - Demand: Agricultural demand has basically ended. In the 32nd week of 2025 (August 1 - 7), the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 41.5%, a month - on - month increase of 2.82 percentage points. The compound fertilizer start - up rate is slowly increasing. In the first half of 2025, the cumulative thermal power generation in China was 2940.9 billion kWh, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%. Later, with the rise in temperature, the consumption of urea for thermal power denitrification will increase [5] - Inventory: On August 6, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 88.76 tons, a decrease of 2.97 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises decreased slightly this cycle [5] - Valuation: The production cost of the fixed - bed process in Shanxi urea factories remained stable at 1300 yuan/ton, and the production profit was also stable, with the current profit at a reasonable level [5] - Strategy: The futures market focused on the impact of the Indian urea tender on the domestic market last week. The Indian urea tender price increased significantly, and the number of bids, winning bids also increased significantly. There are rumors in the market that China can directly supply 20 - 30 tons of urea to India. The domestic urea spot market sentiment rose to some extent, but the weakness of the domestic spot market remained unchanged, and the spot price dropped to around 1700 yuan/ton near the weekend [5] 3.2 Price - Domestic Urea Spot Price: Provided historical price trends of urea in Henan, Sichuan, Shanxi large - particle, and Shanxi small - particle regions from 2021 to 2025 [7][8] - International Urea Price and Spread: Presented historical data on small - particle urea (Shandong factory port collection profit), small - particle urea (Middle East - Shandong factory port collection cost), small - particle urea (China) FOB price, and small - particle urea (Middle East) FOB price from 2021 to 2025 [10][11] - Phosphate and Potash Fertilizer Prices: Showed historical price trends of Hubei monoammonium phosphate, Hubei diammonium phosphate, and Shandong 60% powdered potassium chloride from 2021 to 2025 [12][13] - Urea Futures Price, Basis, and Inter - month Spread: Displayed historical data on the urea futures 09 contract price, urea futures 9 - 1 spread, and urea 09 contract basis from 2021 to 2025 [15][16] 3.3 Supply - Urea Output: Provided historical data on the weekly average daily output of urea, natural - gas - made urea, and coal - made urea from 2021 to 2025 [18][19] - Urea Cost and Profit: Showed historical data on anthracite lump, bituminous coal prices, Shanxi fixed - bed process marginal profit, and Henan new - process marginal profit from 2021 to 2025 [21][22] - Urea Inventory and Apparent Consumption: Presented historical data on urea enterprise inventory, urea port inventory, domestic average daily apparent consumption of urea, and enterprise - perspective average daily apparent consumption of urea from 2021 to 2025 [24][25] 3.4 Demand - Compound Fertilizer Industry: Provided historical data on the compound fertilizer enterprise start - up rate and compound fertilizer inventory from 2021 to 2025 [28][29] - Melamine Industry: Showed historical data on melamine weekly output, melamine price, and melamine/urea price ratio from 2021 to 2025 [30][31] - Export: Presented historical data on China's monthly urea export volume and monthly cumulative urea export volume from 2021 to 2025 [32][33]