能源化工燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告-20250810

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downward trend of fuel oil prices continued this week, and the previous strength of LU further weakened. The supply in the domestic and overseas fuel oil markets is generally loose, with an increasing trend in Middle - East exports in August. The Singapore market has entered a high - inventory state, and the weak spot market transactions will continue to suppress price trends. For low - sulfur fuel oil, although the export volume from Brazil is unstable, there are obvious increases in exports from Kuwait and Indonesia. The RFCC unit maintenance of the Nigerian Dangote refinery may lead to further outflow of heavy - oil resources, and there is still an expectation of increased supply in the Asia - Pacific market. In China, the low - sulfur production decreased slightly in July, the port bunkering demand is still weak, and some refineries are expected to increase low - sulfur exports in August, so the price weakness is hard to shake off. However, attention should be paid to the new batch of export quotas. If the quota is too low, it may support short - term prices [4]. - Valuation: FU is in the range of 2700 - 2850, and LU is in the range of 3300 - 3500 [4]. - Strategies: Unilaterally, it will remain weak following crude oil in the short term; in the inter - period, the contango structure of the near - end of FU and LU will continue; in the inter - variety, the FU crack has fallen to the historical average, but there may still be room for decline, and the LU - FU spread will remain high in the short term [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - The report presents data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (including overall, independent, and major refineries), and the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units, as well as the monthly production and commercial volume of domestic refinery fuel oil [6][10][20]. Demand - It shows the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China [23]. Inventory - Data on global fuel oil spot inventories are provided, including the heavy - oil inventory in Singapore, the fuel oil inventory in European ARA, the heavy - distillate inventory in Fujairah, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the US [27][29][30]. Price and Spread - It includes the FOB prices of fuel oil in different regions (Asia - Pacific, Europe, and the US), paper - cargo and derivative prices, fuel oil spot spreads, global fuel oil crack spreads, and global fuel oil paper - cargo monthly spreads [35][47][61]. Import and Export - There are data on domestic fuel oil import and export, global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export, and global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export [73][78][80]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - The report reviews that the Asia - Pacific fuel oil prices first rose and then fell this week, and the Zhoushan market moved in tandem. In terms of spreads, the premium of high - sulfur spot and FU over the external - market spot was generally stable, while the premium of the near - month LU contract relative to the Singapore market began to decline. The logic is that the domestic and overseas spot and futures prices generally fell this week. FU was weaker, leading to a narrowing of its premium over the external market. For low - sulfur fuel oil, due to increased domestic refinery production and poor bunkering demand, the number of domestic warehouse receipts increased, and the previous strength of LU began to weaken, resulting in a decline in the premium of LU over the Singapore spot [84].