能源化工天然橡胶周度报告-20250810

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of natural rubber may be strongly sorted due to weather disturbances. Overseas raw material prices are slightly up, and domestic spot inventory is slightly decreasing. The fundamental support is strengthening, so the rubber price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger. The suggested strategies are to expect a side - way but upward - biased trend for single - side trading, and to observe for inter - period and inter - variety trading [85]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In the first 7 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased by 14.3% year - on - year, with a 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month increase in July [5]. - In the first half of 2025, US tire imports increased by 6.8% year - on - year. Imports from China decreased by 4.4% year - on - year, while those from Thailand increased by 12% year - on - year [5]. - In July 2025, China's rubber imports increased by 3.4% year - on - year to 63.4 tons. From January to July, imports increased by 20.8% year - on - year [6]. - In the first half of 2025, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 3.4% year - on - year, but exports to China increased by 1.2% year - on - year [7]. Price - This week, both domestic and foreign markets rose synchronously. On August 8, 2025, the closing prices of RU2601, NR2601, Singapore TSR20:2601, and Tokyo RSS3:2601 increased by 2.57%, 2.03%, 2.57%, and 0.83% respectively compared with last week [11][12]. - The basis and spread data show that the basis of whole - milk to RU01 was - 1000 yuan/ton on August 8, 2025, with a 16.28% month - on - month decrease and a 33.77% year - on - year increase. The 01 - 05 spread was - 95 yuan/ton, with a 17.39% month - on - month increase and a 42.42% year - on - year increase [15]. - The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, and RU - JPX RSS3 increased, while the spread of NR - SGX TSR20 decreased. The non - standard basis of imported rubber showed different changes, and the spread between whole - milk and Thai - mixed rubber and between 3L and Thai - mixed rubber decreased [24][28][32]. - The price of synthetic rubber was stable, while RU increased, so the spread between synthetic rubber and RU widened [36]. Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was at a relatively low level, and the settled funds were at a low level compared with the same period last year. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR was at a high level, and the settled funds were still at a high level [41]. Fundamental Data Supply - The temperature and rainfall in southern Thailand returned to normal levels compared with the same period in previous years. Rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan has recently eased [46][47]. - The price of Thai cup - lump increased, while the price of smoked sheets decreased. The prices of glue in Yunnan and Hainan were stable [49]. - The spread between Thai glue and cup - lump and the spread between Hainan glue for concentrated latex and whole - milk decreased [58]. - Thailand's rubber processing profit decreased, while Hainan's concentrated latex processing profit improved [61]. - In June 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased by 2.21% month - on - month and 33.95% year - on - year. Imports of Thai - mixed, Vietnamese - mixed, and Vietnamese - standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while imports of Thai - standard rubber decreased significantly month - on - month [67]. Demand - During the period, the capacity utilization rate of some semi - steel tire enterprises decreased, dragging down the overall rate. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires increased, but the increase was limited [71]. - In June 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Passenger car sales maintained high growth, and heavy - truck sales improved significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [74]. Inventory - This week, the social inventory of natural rubber decreased slightly, and both the inventories of dark and light - colored rubber decreased. The decrease in Qingdao port inventory was due to enterprises' replenishment and the decrease in shipments from the main production areas [77].