中泰期货PVC烧碱产业链周报：PVC + NAOH + CL-20250810

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report PVC - This week, PVC production slightly increased, and next week, with the resumption of many maintenance devices, production is expected to rise to around 480,000 tons. Exports this week continued to decline, and domestic apparent demand growth may be lower than the expected -2%. Inventory accumulated this week, and if domestic demand remains weak, the inventory accumulation rate may accelerate. Chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has deteriorated, and PVC prices have continued to weaken. Upstream开工率 is stable, mid - stream traders are cautious, and downstream开工率 is weak, with low enthusiasm for purchasing [6][10]. Caustic Soda - This week, the production of caustic soda increased due to the resumption of many maintenance devices, and it is expected to continue to increase next week. The export volume in June was less than expected, and the apparent demand this week decreased slightly. The national inventory slightly accumulated this week, and if the apparent demand remains the same next week, it may continue to accumulate. The profit of caustic - chlorine combination has deteriorated, and the price of upstream manufacturers has slightly decreased [107][110][111]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PVC 3.1.1 Spot Market - This week, PVC production increased from 449,400 tons to 467,400 tons, with an increase of 18,000 tons. The ethylene - based production remained stable at 124,900 tons, while the calcium - carbide - based production increased from 324,600 tons to 342,500 tons. The import volume remained at 15,000 tons per week, and the export volume remained at 57,500 tons per week. The apparent demand increased from 397,700 tons to 400,300 tons. The total inventory increased from 793,300 tons to 818,000 tons, with an increase of 24,600 tons [6]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of PVC slightly strengthened, and the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated weakly. For example, the basis of East China calcium - carbide method decreased from - 75 yuan/ton to - 93 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased from - 136 yuan/ton to - 140 yuan/ton [9]. 3.1.3 Industrial Chain Profit - The production profit of calcium carbide and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali have deteriorated. For example, the calcium - carbide production profit in Shaanxi decreased from - 498 yuan/ton to - 510 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive profit of Shandong chlor - alkali decreased from 94 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton. The export profit has improved, with the FOB Tianjin relative export profit decreasing from 152 yuan/ton to - 1 yuan/ton [9]. 3.1.4 Market Outlook - It is recommended to moderately participate in cash - and - carry arbitrage, have a slightly bearish unilateral allocation, conduct reverse spreads for spreads, and continue the strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options for V2509 [10]. 3.2 Caustic Soda 3.2.1 Spot Market - This week, the production of caustic soda increased from 822,500 tons to 833,000 tons, with an increase of 10,500 tons. The import volume remained at 200 tons per week, and the export volume remained at 46,000 tons per week. The apparent demand decreased from 770,800 tons to 767,500 tons. The total inventory (in terms of 100% purity) increased from 233,200 tons to 253,000 tons, with an increase of 19,800 tons [107]. 3.2.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of caustic soda weakened, and the 1 - 5 spread is under observation. For example, the 32% caustic soda basis for the 01 contract decreased from - 61 yuan/ton to - 98 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased from - 90 yuan/ton to - 104 yuan/ton [110]. 3.2.3 Industrial Chain Profit - The profit of the caustic - chlorine combination has deteriorated, and the export profit has strengthened. The profit of Shandong caustic - chlorine combination decreased from 94 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton [110]. 3.2.4 Market Outlook - It is recommended to beware of callback risks for unilateral trading, and there is no suggestion for cash - and - carry arbitrage, spreads, and options for now [111].