甲醇产业链周报：商品情绪缓和，甲醇偏弱震荡-20250810

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent bullish sentiment in commodities has subsided, and some commodities have started to correct. Methanol and olefins have followed suit and basically returned to their previous oscillation price centers. Methanol currently has high upstream profits and low downstream profits, lacking a basis for a significant increase. After the sentiment fades, it will return to fundamentals and enter a weak oscillation pattern. In the long - term, methanol is generally weak due to high supply pressure and sluggish downstream demand growth. The report suggests approaching it with a weak - oscillation mindset [3][89]. - Unilateral strategy: Adopt a weak - oscillation approach and consider a strategy of selling call options. Hedge strategy: Stay on the sidelines [3][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - Methanol spot market prices declined this week. On Friday, the basis quote was around 09 - 10 yuan/ton, and the basis quote for paper goods in late September was 09 + 23 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - Methanol basis quotes oscillated weakly this week, and the basis quote for paper goods in late September was around 09 + 23 yuan/ton [15]. - The coastal basis of methanol oscillated this week, and the inland basis also oscillated. The inland market prices and the market prices in the northwest region oscillated this week [24][35]. - The spread between East China and inland regions of methanol oscillated weakly [45]. - It is recommended to temporarily stay on the sidelines regarding spreads [54]. - The PP - 3MA spread rebounded oscillatingly this week. A strategy of going long on PP and short on MA can be considered for a small - scale holding [60]. 3.3 Industry Chain Profits - There are many new methanol maintenance devices, and the methanol operating rate has weakened slightly. Many methanol maintenance devices have resumed production, and methanol production has started to increase [67][69]. - The dimethyl ether operating rate oscillated, the formaldehyde operating rate rebounded oscillatingly, and the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins in the northwest region oscillated at a high level [74][77]. - This week, the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins plants oscillated, and MTO profits continued to recover [80]. 3.4 Industry Chain Inventory - Methanol slightly destocked at ports and upstream this week. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory accumulation speed [85]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The recent bullish sentiment in commodities has subsided, and methanol will enter a weak - oscillation pattern. It is recommended to adopt a weak - oscillation approach, consider a strategy of selling call options for the unilateral strategy, and stay on the sidelines for the hedge strategy [89][90].