信用分析周报：短端行情修复，长端性价比依然较高-20250810

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - This week (from August 4th to August 8th), in the primary market, the issuance volume, repayment volume, and net financing of traditional credit bonds all increased compared to last week; the net financing of asset - backed securities increased by 20.9 billion yuan compared to last week. The weighted average issuance rate of AA+ financial bonds increased, while the issuance costs of other bond types decreased to varying degrees [1]. - In the secondary market, the trading volume of credit bonds decreased by 168.2 billion yuan compared to last week, and the turnover rate declined overall. The yields of credit bonds within 5 years performed well, with yields of different - rated credit bonds decreasing by 1 - 5 BP, while the long - end performance was average. Generally, the credit spreads of most industries and ratings narrowed to varying degrees, and only a few industries' credit spreads widened slightly [2]. - There were 46 bond implicit ratings downgraded this week. The "H22 Guohou 1" issued by Guohou Asset Management Co., Ltd. defaulted, and the "H6 Chuying 02" issued by Chuying Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Group Co., Ltd. was extended [2]. - The redemption of bond funds eased this week, and the new tax policy increased the cost - effectiveness of general credit bonds, which was a short - term positive for long - duration credit bonds. The compression of ultra - long - term credit bond spreads has not reached last year's low. Although the proportion of low - valuation transaction volumes and TKN transactions has increased this year, the bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, indicating that there is room for the buying sentiment to recover. The market trend may further develop towards long - duration assets [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Net Financing Scale - The net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) this week was 315.9 billion yuan, an increase of 215.7 billion yuan compared to last week. The total issuance volume was 499.6 billion yuan, an increase of 268.3 billion yuan, and the total repayment volume was 183.7 billion yuan, an increase of 52.6 billion yuan. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 8.1 billion yuan, an increase of 20.9 billion yuan [8]. - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 76.7 billion yuan, an increase of 65.7 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 149.3 billion yuan, an increase of 90.2 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 89.9 billion yuan, an increase of 59.8 billion yuan [8]. - In terms of the number of issuances and redemptions, the number of urban investment bond issuances increased by 69, and the number of redemptions decreased by 30; the number of industrial bond issuances increased by 124, and the number of redemptions increased by 9; the number of financial bond issuances increased by 28, and the number of redemptions increased by 3 [11]. 3.1.2 Issuance Cost - The weighted average issuance rate of AA+ financial bonds increased, while the issuance costs of other bond types decreased to varying degrees. The issuance rate of AA+ financial bonds increased by 37 BP, mainly due to the high - rate issuance of "25 Weifang Bank Perpetual Bond 01" and "25 Guorui 01". The issuance rate of AA industrial bonds decreased by 59 BP, mainly because the new bonds issued by AA industrial entities this week with a total scale of 2.238 billion yuan had an issuance rate of 2.2% or lower. The issuance rates of other different - rated and different - type bonds decreased by no more than 13 BP [17]. 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Trading Situation - In terms of trading volume, the trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 168.2 billion yuan compared to last week. The trading volume of urban investment bonds was 227.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.1 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 331.4 billion yuan, an increase of 400 million yuan; that of financial bonds was 398.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 153.4 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 900 million yuan, a decrease of 770 million yuan [19]. - In terms of turnover rate, the turnover rate of credit bonds declined overall. The turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.46%, a decrease of 0.11 pct; that of industrial bonds was 1.84%, a decrease of 0.01 pct; that of financial bonds was 2.67%, a decrease of 1.04 pct; and that of asset - backed securities was 0.26%, a decrease of 0.23 pct [19]. 3.2.2 Yields - The yields of credit bonds within 5 years performed well, with yields of different - rated credit bonds decreasing by 1 - 5 BP, while the long - end performance was average. Specifically, the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA+ credit bonds within 1 year decreased by 4 BP, 3 BP, and 4 BP respectively compared to last week; the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA+ credit bonds between 3 - 5 years decreased by 3 BP, 1 BP, and 2 BP respectively; and the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA+ credit bonds over 10 years fluctuated within 1 BP [24]. - Taking AA+ 5 - year bonds of each type as an example, the yields of different types of bonds decreased to varying degrees this week. The yields of non - publicly issued industrial bonds and perpetual industrial bonds decreased by 3 BP and 1 BP respectively; the yield of AA+ 5 - year urban investment bonds decreased by 3 BP; the yields of commercial bank ordinary bonds and secondary capital bonds decreased by 2 BP respectively; and the yield of AA+ 5 - year asset - backed securities decreased by 2 BP [25]. 3.2.3 Credit Spreads - Generally, the credit spreads of most industries and ratings narrowed to varying degrees, and only a few industries' credit spreads widened slightly. Specifically, the credit spreads of AA+ non - ferrous metals and household appliances compressed by 7 BP and 6 BP respectively compared to last week; the credit spreads of AA+ computer, AAA electrical equipment, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery widened by no more than 2 BP; the credit spreads of other industries and ratings compressed by no more than 5 BP [26]. 3.2.3.1 Urban Investment Bonds - By term, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds within 1 year compressed slightly, while the spreads of other terms widened slightly. The 0.5 - 1 - year urban investment credit spread was 31 BP, a compression of 3 BP compared to last week; the 1 - 3 - year spread was 38 BP, a compression of 3 BP; the 3 - 5 - year spread was 57 BP, a compression of 2 BP; the 5 - 10 - year spread was 50 BP, a compression of 2 BP; and the spread over 10 years was 41 BP, a compression of 1 BP [30]. - By region, the credit spreads of most urban investment bonds widened, and only a few regions' credit spreads compressed slightly. The AA - rated credit spreads of Hebei and Yunnan compressed by 6 BP and 12 BP respectively, and the AA+ - rated credit spread of Liaoning compressed by 6 BP. The credit spreads of other regions fluctuated within 5 BP [31]. 3.2.3.2 Industrial Bonds - This week, the credit spreads of industrial bonds fluctuated slightly within 5 BP overall, and the long - end spreads were under pressure for adjustment. Specifically, the credit spreads of 1 - year AAA -, AA+, and AA private - placement industrial bonds compressed by 1 BP, 2 BP, and widened by 1 BP respectively compared to last week; the credit spreads of 10 - year AAA -, AA+, and AA private - placement industrial bonds widened by 3 BP each; the credit spreads of 1 - year AAA - and AA perpetual industrial bonds widened by less than 1 BP, and the AA+ perpetual industrial bond spread widened by 1 BP; the credit spreads of 10 - year AAA -, AA+, and AA perpetual industrial bonds widened by 4 BP each [34]. 3.2.3.3 Bank Capital Bonds - This week, the credit spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds showed differentiation, but the overall fluctuation range was not large. Specifically, the credit spreads of 1 - year AAA -, AA+, and AA Tier 2 capital bonds compressed by less than 1 BP, 1 BP, and 2 BP respectively; the credit spreads of 10 - year AAA -, AA+, and AA Tier 2 capital bonds widened by 2 BP each; the credit spreads of 1 - year AAA -, AA+, and AA bank perpetual bonds compressed by 1 BP each; the credit spreads of 10 - year AAA -, AA+, and AA bank perpetual bonds compressed by 2 BP each [37]. 3.3 This Week's Bond Market Rumors - There were 46 bond implicit ratings downgraded this week, including 31 by China Railway Construction Real Estate Group Co., Ltd., 10 by Shanghai Jinmao Investment Management Group Co., Ltd., and 3 by Luneng Group Co., Ltd. The "H22 Guohou 1" issued by Guohou Asset Management Co., Ltd. defaulted, and the "H6 Chuying 02" issued by Chuying Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Group Co., Ltd. was extended [40]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - This week, there were 1.6632 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases due in the open market, and the central bank conducted 1.1267 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan for the whole week. The DR001 dropped from 1.34% at the Monday close to 1.29%. The active 10 - year Treasury bond showed no significant change from last Friday's close, fluctuating around 1.69%. Generally, the credit spreads of most industries and ratings narrowed to varying degrees, and only a few industries' credit spreads widened slightly. For urban investment bonds, the credit spreads of those within 1 year compressed slightly, while the spreads of other terms widened slightly. For industrial bonds, the credit spreads fluctuated slightly within 5 BP overall, and the long - end spreads were under pressure for adjustment. For bank capital bonds, the credit spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds showed differentiation, but the overall fluctuation range was not large [42]. - The redemption of bond funds eased this week, and the new tax policy increased the cost - effectiveness of general credit bonds, which was a short - term positive for long - duration credit bonds. From the perspective of credit spread positions, the long - end risk - free interest rate has been in a downward channel since July 2024, and the yields of ultra - long - term credit bonds followed suit. The credit spreads reached an extreme in July last year, and currently, the compression of ultra - long - term credit bond spreads has not reached last year's low. From the perspective of secondary trading sentiment, the proportion of low - valuation transaction volumes and TKN transactions has increased this year. However, affected by the strong equity market in July and the sharp rise in commodity futures prices catalyzed by the "anti - involution" sentiment, the bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, indicating that there is room for the buying sentiment to recover. In addition, with the concentrated listing of Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETFs on July 17th, the spreads of medium - and short - end component bonds have been compressed to an extreme. Driven by the "asset shortage" in the low - interest - rate environment this year, the market trend may further develop towards long - duration assets [43]. - From the timing signal of ultra - long - term credit bonds, using the spread between the yield to maturity of AAA+ ChinaBond Medium - and Short - Term Notes and the Treasury bond rate of the same term as the observation object and constructing a Bollinger Band with the 60 - day average spread ± 2 standard deviations, as of August 8th, the 10 - year spread touched the 60 - day moving average but did not form an effective breakthrough; the 15 - year and 20 - year spreads have effectively broken through the average and touched the upper limit of the channel since the adjustment in late July; the 30 - year spread is still hovering near the lower limit of the channel without an obvious trend. In terms of the term structure, the 15 - 20 - year ultra - long - term credit bonds have relatively high cost - effectiveness after the adjustment catalyzed by the "anti - involution" market. The ranking of the allocation value of ultra - long - term credit bonds from high to low is 15Y > 20Y > 10Y > 30Y [44]. - Specifically, issuers with relatively large outstanding volumes, more than 50 cumulative transactions from January 1st to August 5th, and a weighted average yield to call of over 2% in industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and bank Tier 2 capital bonds are recommended. In industrial bonds, State Grid Corporation of China has the largest outstanding volume of ultra - long - term credit bonds and active trading, but its yield level is relatively low. China Chengtong Holdings Group Co., Ltd., Sinochem Group Co., Ltd., Aluminum Corporation of China Limited, and Guangzhou Yuexiu Group Co., Ltd. have both yield levels and activity, and are relatively more cost - effective. In urban investment bonds, most have better static coupon rates than industrial bonds, but the range of available outstanding bonds is relatively narrow. Attention can be paid to the further compression opportunities of the spreads of ultra - long - term bonds of issuers such as Shenzhen Metro Group Co., Ltd., Shaanxi Transportation Holding Group Co., Ltd., Yantai Guofeng Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd., and Sichuan Expressway Construction and Development Group Co., Ltd. In bank Tier 2 capital bonds, the outstanding ultra - long - term bonds are mainly concentrated in several large state - owned and joint - stock commercial banks, and their yield levels are relatively less cost - effective compared to industrial and urban investment bonds [49].