能源化工甲醇周度报告-20250810

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market shows a narrow - range oscillation pattern in the short term. There is limited willingness to short - sell at the fundamental valuation support level of methanol in the short - term market. This is due to two main reasons: the "anti - involution" policy, although not as aggressive in the short term, has a long - term policy orientation, which supports the overall valuation of commodities; currently, the methanol fundamentals are neutral, with expected inventory accumulation at ports and price resilience in the inland area, resulting in an unclear price drive [4]. - In the short term, the single - side trend is slightly weak, and it oscillates in the medium term. The upper pressure range is 2420 - 2430 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 2320 - 2330 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs This Week's Methanol Summary Supply - This week (20250801 - 0807), China's methanol production was 1,845,225 tons, a decrease of 67,900 tons from last week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 81.61%, a 3.55% decrease from the previous week. The decrease in production is mainly related to the increase in maintenance devices this period. The planned maintenance devices for the next period are expected to decrease, and the recovery devices may increase, so the overall market supply may increase [4]. Demand - Olefins: Zhejiang Xingxing continued to be shut down this week. Shenhua Ningxia resumed operation after a short - term shutdown last week. Qinghai Salt Lake reduced its load, and Xinjiang Hengyou resumed operation at a low load. After the hedging of each enterprise's devices, the olefin industry's start - up rate increased. Next week, Shenhua Xinjiang's olefin device is expected to shut down, leading to a decline in the start - up rate. - Traditional downstream: For dimethyl ether, the on - site devices are expected to maintain the previous dynamic stability next week, and the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be flat compared to this week. For glacial acetic acid, Yanchang and Changcheng will resume normal operation next week. If there are no other unexpected device failures, the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. For formaldehyde, the Puyang Pengxin device has the expectation of resuming operation next week. Without other unexpected device failures, the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase compared to this week. For chlorides, the Jinling Dongying device may operate at full capacity next week. Without other unexpected device shutdowns or load reductions, the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase compared to this week [4]. Inventory - As of August 6, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 293,700 tons, a decrease of 30,800 tons from the previous period, a 9.50% decrease. The sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 240,800 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons from the previous period, a 4.37% increase. - As of August 6, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 925,500 tons, an increase of 117,100 tons from the previous period, a 14.49% increase. The methanol port inventory increased significantly this week. After the unsealing, the arrival and unloading speed of ships accelerated, with 238,000 tons of overseas vessel's visible unloading. The提货 volume in the mainstream storage areas in Jiangsu increased slightly, but the consumption in Zhejiang weakened significantly due to the shutdown of olefin plants. Therefore, inventory accumulated under the background of concentrated unloading. The inventory in South China ports continued to increase. In Guangdong, both imported and domestic trade vessels arrived this week. Due to the continued weak demand, the提货 volume in the mainstream storage areas was average, and the inventory continued to accumulate. In Fujian, the imported supply continued to be replenished, and the downstream demand was mediocre, so the inventory also increased [4]. Price and Spread - The report presents multiple price - related charts, including the basis, monthly spread, and warehouse receipt of methanol in the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differences from 2020 - 2025 [7][11][16]. Supply New Capacity Summary - From 2024 - 2025, China's new methanol production capacity was significant. In 2024, the total new capacity expansion was 4 million tons, and in 2025, it was 8.4 million tons. Overseas, the total new international capacity expansion in 2024 was 3.55 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 3.3 million tons [24]. Maintenance Summary - The report lists the domestic methanol device maintenance statistics, including the region, manufacturer, capacity, raw material, start time, end time, and remarks of each maintenance device [26]. Production and Start - up Rate - The report provides charts of methanol production and capacity utilization rates in China and different regions (such as the Northwest, Southwest, Central China, and East China) from 2018 - 2025, as well as the production of methanol from different processes (such as coke oven gas, coal single - methanol, natural gas, and coal co - methanol) [27][29]. Import - Related - The report shows charts of China's monthly methanol import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit from 2020 - 2025 [36]. Cost and Profit - The report presents charts of the production cost and profit of methanol from different processes (such as coal - based in Inner Mongolia and Shandong, coke - oven - gas - based in Hebei, and natural - gas - based in Chongqing) from 2020 - 2025 [41][44]. Demand Downstream Start - up Rate - The report provides charts of the capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream industries, including methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, etc., in China from 2020 - 2025 [50]. Downstream Profit - The report shows the production profit charts of methanol downstream industries (such as methanol - to - olefins in East China and Shandong, formaldehyde in Shandong, MTBE in Shandong, and glacial acetic acid in Jiangsu) from 2020 - 2025 [58][62]. Procurement Volume - The report presents the procurement volume charts of methanol - to - olefins production enterprises and traditional downstream manufacturers in different regions (such as China, East China, Northwest China, and Central China) from 2020 - 2025 [66][71]. Raw Material Inventory - The report shows the raw material inventory charts of methanol downstream manufacturers in different regions (such as China, Northwest China, Shandong, and South China) from 2020 - 2025 [76]. Inventory - The report provides charts of methanol factory inventory in China and different regions (such as East China, Northwest China, and Inner Mongolia) from 2018 - 2025, as well as the port inventory in China and different ports (such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong) [81][87].