宏观周报：地缘政治面临潜在变局-20250810

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - In July, retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.826 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, but a month-on-month decrease of 12.4%[2] - The average subway passenger volume in the first week of August increased by 0.48% year-on-year but decreased by 3.65% month-on-month[2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1982.2 in the first week of August, up 8.5% month-on-month and 14.9% year-on-year[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - As of August 9, the average operating rate of blast furnaces increased by 0.24 percentage points to 83.63%[2] - The average operating rate of rebar was 44.12%, up 0.84 percentage points month-on-month[2] - The average daily coal consumption of power plants in July was 5.305 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%[2] Price Performance - As of August 8, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.53% week-on-week, while the average wholesale price of key monitored vegetables increased by 3.21%[2] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 4.87% as of August 7, while the prices of coking coal, iron ore, and rebar increased by 8.80%, 2.62%, and 0.38% respectively[2] International Macro - Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1 in July, indicating a slight decline in demand[3] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased to 226,000 but did not reach levels that would significantly raise the unemployment rate[3] - The Eurozone services PMI remained stable at 51.0, with Germany at 50.6 and France at 48.5[3] Risks - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation, slower-than-expected recovery in consumer confidence, and unexpected geopolitical changes[3]