国泰君安期货金银周报-20250810

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, London gold rebounded by 2.57%, and London silver rebounded by 5.95%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 92.5 to 88.5. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 1.88%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.23%, and the US dollar index was 98.08 [3]. - The recent fluctuations in COMEX gold are mainly due to the expected tariff changes. However, this tariff - related trading is likely temporary, lacking official sources and having limited impact on the US. The cross - market spread has significantly converged at the end of Friday [3]. - In terms of strategies, it is recommended to focus on cross - market arbitrage between COMEX - SHFE and COMEX - LBMA, aiming to converge the spread. Overall, it is difficult to predict the trend of gold and silver, and technical signals may be more effective than fundamental factors [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - Week Market Review - Price and Increase: This week, the closing prices of various gold and silver futures and spot products showed different degrees of increase. For example, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9,278 with a weekly increase of 4.04%, and the closing price of London Gold Spot was 3,398.6 with a weekly increase of 1.07% [9]. - Trading Volume and Position Changes: The trading volume and positions of various gold and silver futures contracts also changed. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 389,332, a decrease of 445,304 compared with the previous week, and the position was 373,954, an increase of 8,761 [9]. 3.2 Overseas Spot - Futures Price Difference - Gold: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold main contract fell to - 59.621 US dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold main contract was - 54.7 US dollars per ounce [14]. - Silver: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver main contract converged to - 0.171 US dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver main contract was - 0.12 US dollars per ounce [17]. 3.3 Domestic Spot - Futures Price Difference - Gold: This week, the gold spot - futures price difference was - 4.53 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [21]. - Silver: This week, the silver spot - futures price difference was - 29 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [24]. 3.4 Monthly Spread - Gold: This week, the gold monthly spread was 6.2 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [27]. - Silver: This week, the silver monthly spread was 75 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [31]. 3.5 Delivery Cost of Long - Short Spread Arbitrage - Gold: The total cost of long - short spread arbitrage for gold in different contract combinations (such as buying TD and selling Shanghai Gold, buying December contract and selling June contract) ranges from 8.06 yuan per gram to 14.45 yuan per gram [34][35]. - Silver: The total cost of long - short spread arbitrage for silver in different contract combinations (such as buying TD and selling Shanghai Silver, buying December contract and selling June contract) ranges from 101.27 yuan per kilogram to 164.82 yuan per kilogram [36][37]. 3.6 Delivery Direction of Deferred Fees This week, the deferred fee direction of gold and silver in the Shanghai Gold Exchange was mainly from long to short, indicating strong delivery power [38]. 3.7 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio - COMEX Gold: This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.13 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 55.5% [40]. - COMEX Silver: This week, the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.17 million ounces to 506.49 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio dropped to 37.6% [42]. - Domestic Futures Inventory: This week, the gold futures inventory increased by 300 tons, and the silver futures inventory decreased by 25.57 tons to 1,158 tons [44]. 3.8 CFTC Non - Commercial Positions This week, the non - commercial net long positions of COMEX CFTC gold and silver both decreased slightly [46]. 3.9 ETF Positions - Gold: This week, the inventory of the gold SPDR ETF increased by 5.13 tons [50]. - Silver: This week, the inventory of the silver SLV ETF increased by 49.96 tons [52]. 3.10 Gold - Silver Ratio This week, the gold - silver ratio dropped from 90.1 to 88.7 [54]. 3.11 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rates This week, the 1 - month gold lease rate was - 0.23%, and the 1 - month silver lease rate was 1.77% [56]. 3.12 Core Drivers of Gold - Gold and Real Interest Rates: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [61]. - Inflation and Retail Sales: The report presents data on US PCE, core PCE, retail and food service sales [64][65]. - Non - farm Employment: The report shows data on US non - farm employment, including new non - farm employment, initial jobless claims, and unemployment rates [66][67]. - Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions: The report mentions the economic surprise index, inflation surprise index, and the probability of Fed rate cuts [73][75].