锌产业链周度报告-20250810

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand improvement for zinc is limited, and the price shows a volatile performance. The strength - weakness analysis is neutral [2]. - The inventory accumulation is becoming more obvious. The galvanizing start - up rate has a marginal increase [3][4]. - On the supply side, the supply is increasing. With the increase in zinc concentrate, the inventory of zinc concentrate in smelters and ports is relatively abundant, and the smelter profit is at a historical median. The supply pressure has increased, and the excess logic is gradually reflected in the social inventory accumulation. On the consumption side, it is still in the off - season, with insufficient new orders. Although there is some resilience in rigid demand, the demand improvement is very limited, and the industry start - up rate has little room to rise without more favorable policies. In the short term, the zinc price shows a volatile performance due to factors such as the increase in the inventory accumulation slope, the fading of domestic macro - sentiment, and the expectation of strong supply and weak demand in August. In the medium - to - long term, the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. For the internal - external strategy, Shanghai zinc may be relatively weaker during the period of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the domestic off - season, and the positive spread positions within the short - to - medium - term (within a quarter) can be continued to hold [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Price Performance: The closing price of Shanghai zinc main contract last week was 22,515, with a weekly increase of 0.87%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 22,555, with a night - session increase of 0.18%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 2834, with a weekly increase of 3.83% [7]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes: The trading volume of Shanghai zinc main contract last Friday was 81,428, a decrease of 23,693 compared with the previous week. The open interest was 94,895, a decrease of 13,189 compared with the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 8402, a decrease of 5705 compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 193,958, an increase of 4615 compared with the previous week [7]. - Price Difference Changes: The LME zinc premium changed from - 10.96 to - 0.23, an increase of 10.73. The bonded - area zinc premium changed from - 30 to 140, an increase of 170. The spot premium of Shanghai 0 zinc changed from 0 to - 35, a decrease of 35, etc. [7]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - Inventory: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has increased [9]. - Profit: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are relatively good. Mine enterprise profits are stable in the short term and at a historical median. Smelting profits are also stable and at a historical median. Galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable but at a medium - to - low level in the same period [11][12]. - Start - up Rate: The zinc concentrate start - up rate has increased and is at a median level in the same period in history. The refined zinc start - up rate has declined but is at a high level in the same period in history. The downstream galvanizing start - up rate has increased, while the die - casting zinc start - up rate has decreased, and both are at a medium - to - low level in history [13][14]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - Spot: The spot premium has a slight decline. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decrease in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has an obvious change [17][23]. - Price Difference: The near - end of Shanghai zinc shows a C structure, and the far - end structure is gradually moving out of the back structure [25]. - Inventory: The inventory at a low level shows a stable and rising trend, and the inventory accumulation is becoming more obvious. The open interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. The LME inventory is mainly concentrated in the Singapore area, with a short - term slight decrease and at a median level in the same period in history. The bonded - area inventory is stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has a slight decline [31][36][39]. - Futures: The domestic open interest is at a median level in the same period in history [40]. 3.4 Supply - Zinc Concentrate: The import of zinc concentrate has declined. The domestic zinc ore production is at a median level in history. The recovery rate of processing fees for domestic and imported ores has slowed down. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a median level, and the smelter raw material inventory is abundant and at a high level in the same period in history [43][44]. - Refined Zinc: The smelting output has a marginal recovery. The smelter finished product inventory is at a medium - to - high level in the same period in history, and the zinc alloy output is at a high level. The refined zinc import volume is at a historical median [45][48]. 3.5 Zinc Demand - The refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive. The downstream monthly start - up rate has a slight decline, and most are at a medium - to - low level in the same period in history [54][57]. - The real estate is still at a low level, while the power grid shows a structural increase [69]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - The European Continental benchmark Dutch natural gas futures price and the ICE EU carbon quota main contract price are presented, which may affect the zinc market through factors such as energy costs and production costs [71][72].