短纤、瓶片周度报告-20250810

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for bottle chips (PR) is "sideways with a downward bias" [5] - The investment rating for staple fiber (PF) is "sideways in the short - term with limited downside" [8] 2. Core Views of the Report For Bottle Chips (PR) - In the short - term, the downside is limited and there may be a stabilization and rebound, but medium - term pressure is obvious. The reduction in production by factories this round is less than in previous years, leading to a slow feedback from the demand side. However, after the absolute price decline, there is a lot of short - covering or speculative demand in the market. The domestic downstream demand is at a high level year - on - year and month - on - month, and the export has recovered for some factories' product pick - up schedules. The unilateral price may bottom out and rebound in the short - term, but it is a rebound rather than a reversal. There will be inventory reduction from July to August, and after the end of the production cut, the increase in production and the demand pressure from September to October will gradually emerge, showing a downward trend. But before the end of the peak season, attention should be paid to the possibility of a stronger basis if there are sudden fluctuations on the supply side when the downstream inventory is low [10] For Staple Fiber (PF) - It is sideways with a downward bias in the short - term but with limited downside. The downstream start - up rate has bottomed out and rebounded, and both domestic and foreign demand are expected to improve in mid - to late August. The profit of staple fiber factories is still around the cash - flow cost, and the inventory is at a neutral level. In addition, a large - scale reduction in PTA production may support the prices of polyester downstream products. In the new round of US tariff negotiations, the tariff range has eased compared to April. After the tariffs are implemented, there may be a new round of foreign trade orders in the short - term. In the medium - to long - term, tariffs will still affect exports and re - exports. In the future, there is limited room for further increasing the start - up rate of staple fiber, and as the peak demand season approaches, the processing fee is expected to expand [8] 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Bottle Chips (PR) Valuation and Profit - The polymerization cost has declined, with this week's polymerization cost at around 5480 - 5550 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee of bottle chips has continued to recover, at around 400 - 450 yuan/ton. The export profit is oscillating weakly, and calculated based on the domestic polymerization cost, it is about 700 - 800 yuan/ton (reflecting a relatively high level of export profit), and the domestic - foreign price difference has narrowed [50] Fundamental Operating Conditions - Supply: After this round of production cuts, the processing fee has not risen above the factory cost. Factories are expected to maintain the current production cut until the end of August, and gradually resume production in September but may still maintain a partial production cut scale. This week, the operating rate of bottle chips was 79%. The impact of "anti - involution" on bottle chips is mainly a possible increase in costs (such as MEG), and there are few old bottle - chip devices, so the supply impact is small [9] - Demand: The domestic downstream start - up rate remains at a high level, and downstream enterprises maintain a restocking rhythm when prices are low. Since May, downstream enterprises have rarely made large - scale purchases due to rising absolute prices. If the absolute price drops, it is expected that the buying sentiment will be good. At the same time, the ocean freight has declined, reducing the impact on exports from July to August. Overall, bottle chips are in a pattern of slight inventory reduction from July to August. This week, the factory inventory was around 17 days, a month - on - month decrease [10] - Price and Spread: This week, the price dropped slightly to 5920 - 5950 yuan/ton; the FOB price was 770 - 795 US dollars/ton. The bottle chip - PVC spread has been at a high level of 1000 - 1500 yuan/ton since 2024, with a low driving force for further substitution. The bottle chips maintain a high - level price difference with general plastics such as PP, showing obvious cost - effectiveness, and the substitution in the packaging field continues [28][31][32] - Raw Material End: There are new device overhauls for PTA. The total inventory of PTA has shown certain changes, and the PTA load index has also fluctuated. For MEG, the port inventory in East China and the load have also changed, and the ocean freight has declined, reducing the impact on exports [43][47] - Inventory: The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories has decreased. The domestic polyester bottle - chip factory inventory has dropped to 17 days (CCF caliber). There will be inventory reduction in the social inventory from July to August. According to CCF data, the social inventory at the end of June was finally counted at 3.07 million tons, estimated to be revised to 3 million tons at the end of July, and estimated to be revised to 2.83 million tons at the end of August [55][60] - Device Changes: In August, major polyester bottle - chip factories will continue the production cut of 20% or more that started in July, with no plan to increase or restart for the time being. Some are expected to restart in September. In the future, Fuhai plans to put into production 300,000 - ton devices in September and November respectively. Wuliangye's 100,000 - ton project is planned to be put into production at the end of this year or early next year, but it is expected to mainly produce modified products and RPET [61] - Demand: This week, the overall downstream start - up rate changed little. The device load of beverage enterprises increased to 95 - 100%. The average start - up rate of edible oil enterprises remained around 70 - 80%. In the sheet material sector, it was around 60 - 80% in East China and 40 - 60% in South China. In 2025 from January to June, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production was 3.0%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of beverage product retail sales was 0.6%. The demand for edible oil remains neutral, and the demand for sheet materials is average, but the supermarket consumption has improved month - on - month [64][70][73] - Global Trade Flow: Overseas bottle - chip production capacity has increased little in recent years, and the small increase is mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia and the Indian sub - continent. There are also bottlenecks in cost and supply volume for the "bottle - to - bottle" RPET in Europe and the US to replace virgin bottle chips. Overseas downstream demand growth will increasingly rely on imports to achieve supply - demand balance. The main trade flows of Chinese bottle - chip exports are: China - Southeast Asia - South Asia; China - Central Asia, Russia, and Eastern Europe; China - South Korea, Mexico, the Middle East for re - export to North America; China - Africa and South America [80] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From July to August, it is in a tight - balance state, and inventory will accumulate again after September. Supply - side assumptions: After the large - scale production cut, the processing fee has not recovered well, and the production cut may last until the end of August, and the concentrated production - cut capacity will resume in September; Fuhai's new device will be put into production in September. Demand assumptions: The downstream demand is calculated based on a 5% year - on - year increase compared to last year's peak season; the export demand may be affected month - on - month from June to July due to ocean freight issues, and it will recover starting from August. Recently, the ocean freight has declined, and the impact on exports in July may be less than expected, so there may also be a slight inventory reduction in July [95][97] Staple Fiber (PF) Valuation - Spot prices fluctuate less, the futures market is weak, and the basis has strengthened slightly. The processing fee on the futures market is still weak [101][106] Fundamental Operating Conditions - Supply: Based on the fact that the processing fee and inventory pressure are not large, factories maintain a high start - up rate. This week, the average start - up rate of factories was 90.6%, and the start - up rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber for spinning was 95.3%. It is expected to remain stable or increase slightly in the future. The impact of "anti - involution" on staple fiber is mainly a possible increase in costs (such as MEG). Although there are many old staple - fiber devices, some have undergone boiler renovations, and the absolute value of the cost difference between new and old devices is small. The production enterprises are mainly private, and the start - up still mainly considers economic efficiency [8] - Demand: The start - up rate of terminal weaving has bottomed out and rebounded, but the short - term demand is still weak. There is restocking at low prices downstream, and the staple - fiber inventory has slightly accumulated. This week, the 1.4D equity inventory was 10.6 days, and the physical inventory was 23 days. The US has issued a new round of reciprocal tariffs, and at the same time, China and the US are conducting a new round of trade negotiations. The tax rates in textile and clothing transit areas such as Southeast Asia are mainly around 20%. Re - export restrictions may also be part of the negotiations. China and the US are promoting a 10% tariff extension in the short - term. After the tariffs are gradually implemented in August, there may be a round of foreign trade orders. Domestic and foreign demand is expected to improve in mid - to late August [8] - Inventory: Downstream has impulse restocking. The FDY inventory pressure is relatively large, while the inventory of other varieties is neutral [117] - Profit: With the decline in costs, most profits have recovered, but polyester chips are still in the red [125] - Downstream: The inventory pressure of polyester yarn is relatively large, and the start - up rate has bottomed out. The terminal restocks, and the yarn price drops slightly. The profit of polyester yarn is generally better than last year, especially for polyester - cotton yarn. The substitution of virgin products for recycled products continues [133][135][137] - Weaving Start - up: The terminal start - up rate has bottomed out and rebounded [146][149]