纯苯、苯乙烯周报-20250810

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene is short - term strong, while the fundamentals of styrene remain weak. In the second half of the year, with limited domestic demand growth, the downstream hard - rubber segment has limited incremental demand. However, in the short term, the structure of pure benzene has strengthened rapidly, and during the interval between the commissioning of downstream styrene plants and the slow release of new pure benzene plant production, pure benzene has strengthened periodically. Attention should be paid to the position of compressing styrene profits [3]. - According to the crude oil valuation of $65, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton. With Brent crude oil rising to $67 and $70, the reasonable valuation of BZ2603 is 6100 - 6300 yuan/ton. The reasonable processing fee for styrene is 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Pure benzene domestic production: In July, the planned maintenance loss was about 100,000 tons (Fuhai, Fuhai Chuang, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Tianjin Petrochemical), and in August, it dropped to 40,000 tons. Pay attention to the commissioning of CNOOC Daxie on July 18 and the new plants such as Yulong Petrochemical (reforming + disproportionation), Jilin Petrochemical, Jingbo, and Hunan Petrochemical in August [3]. - Pure benzene imports: The US has imposed continuous tariffs on overseas, and the downstream plants in the US have restarted, leading to a stable rebound in the US pure benzene price. The refinery's operating rate has increased during the peak summer gasoline season, but the yield has been decreasing since July due to poor pure benzene economics. The profit of the STDP unit is negative. The profit of US styrene has been squeezed from a high level, but the operating rate has recovered from 50% in June to nearly 65% - 70% in July. The cracking profit in the European market is poor, and the load is expected to be reduced. The spot volume of pure benzene in Europe is limited, and factories are actively destocking and increasing contract volumes. About 30,000 tons of pure benzene were shipped from Europe to the US from May to June, and Europe imported more than 100,000 tons of styrene in June. The US - to - Europe EB window is currently closed from July to August. European downstream plants are planning a 2 - 3 - week seasonal maintenance in August. Pay attention to the opening of the pure benzene Europe/South Korea - to - US and styrene US - to - Europe windows [3]. - Styrene: Recently, there has been a significant increase in supply. Liaoning Baolai's 350,000 - ton plant has restarted, and new plants such as Jingbo Petrochemical's 680,000 - ton (August) and Jilin Petrochemical's 600,000 - ton (September) are about to be commissioned [3]. - Caprolactam: Hengyi's 300,000 - ton new plant in Qinzhou, Guangxi is planned to be commissioned from August to September [3]. 3.2 Demand - Phenol: The maintenance of Yangzhou Shiyou and Jiangsu Yangnong is about to end. New plants such as Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 400,000 - ton and Jilin Petrochemical's 200,000 - ton will be commissioned from July to August, and Shandong Ruilin plans to be commissioned in October [3]. - Aniline: Jinmao Aluminum, Shandong Huatai, and Jiangsu Fuqiang have recently restarted. Wanhua Chemical's (Fujian) new plant has been commissioned and is currently operating at a low load. Yantai Wanhua plans a rotation maintenance from August to September [3]. - Styrene downstream 3S hard rubber: EPS and PS have clearly entered the summer off - season, with continuous inventory accumulation and reduced operating rates. EPS has significantly reduced its load. The overall demand for ABS remains medium - to - high and shows resilience [3]. 3.3 Futures Contract - Pure benzene futures contract rules: The trading unit is 30 tons/hand, the minimum price change is 1 yuan/ton, the daily price limit is 4% of the previous trading day's settlement price, etc. The initial trading margin standard is 8%, and the daily price limit is ±7%; on the listing day, it is ±14% of the listing benchmark price. The listing benchmark prices of BZ2603, BZ2604, BZ2605, and BZ2606 are all 5900 yuan/ton [8][9]. - Delivery standards: The delivery quality standard of pure benzene futures follows the national standard 545, and the delivery systems include one - time delivery, rolling delivery, and futures - to - cash delivery. The delivery is mainly through factory warehouses, with warehouse delivery as an auxiliary. The delivery qualifications are for dangerous chemicals, and group - based delivery is adopted [10]. 3.4 Industry Trends - 2025 production and demand trends: In the first half of 2025, the price of pure benzene continued to decline. In the second half of the year, domestic production supply will continue to increase, and the inventory will gradually decrease. From January to May 2025, the total production of pure benzene was 8.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. It is expected that the apparent demand for pure benzene in 2025 will be 31.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [35]. - Investment and commissioning: In the second half of 2025, the commissioning of pure benzene downstream plants will gradually be implemented. From 2026 to 2027, the commissioning of styrene plants will still be relatively large [31][32]. 3.5 Product Structure and Profit - Product structure change: From the end of 2022 to May 2025, the proportion of styrene, caprolactam, adipic acid, aniline, and phenol in the downstream of pure benzene has changed. The proportion of styrene has decreased, while the proportion of caprolactam has increased [63]. - Profit situation: The profit of the pure benzene - styrene industry chain shows a seesaw effect. The profit of downstream products such as caprolactam, aniline, and phenol also fluctuates. The processing fee of styrene is relatively high in the near - term [36][28].