煤焦周度观点-20250810

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market supply and demand for coal and coke remain tight, and the expectation of further tightening of the fundamentals is strengthening. Coupled with the strong trading sentiment on the macro - front and the continuous implementation of anti - involution related policies in multiple industries, the room for a deep decline in coal and coke prices in the short term is limited [3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Coal and Coke Weekly Viewpoint - Supply: Supply disruptions have materialized. News of production restrictions in the production areas is constantly fermenting, leading to a slight decline in overall supply. Fenwei's raw coal production decreased by 1.1% week - on - week to 8.59 million tons. The average daily number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port for imported Mongolian coal remained above 1,000 [3][5] - Demand: Although the futures market is running strongly, the trading in the downstream and speculative sectors is relatively cautious, and the online auction failure rate has increased slightly. However, the molten iron output remains at a relatively high level [5] - Macro: The expectation of long - term improvement in corporate profits brought about by anti - involution is still strong. The latest CPI data increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year; the month - on - month decline in PPI narrowed, but the year - on - year decline widened. Anti - involution related policies have been continuously implemented in multiple industries, which may improve the market's expectations for the future long - term profits and demand of industries related to the steel downstream [5] Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | | Coking Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 858.95 (- 9.73); FW clean coal 439.01 (- 5.05) | Independent coking plants' daily average 52.02 (+ 0.19); Steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average 46.80 (- 0.17) | | Demand | Molten iron output 240.32 (- 0.39) | Molten iron output 240.32 (- 0.39) | | Inventory | MS total inventory - 14.1; Mine raw coal - 6.8; Independent coking - 4.8; Mine clean coal - 2.6; Steel mill coking + 4.9; Port - 4.77; FW Port - 5.0 | MS total inventory - 8.3; Independent coking - 3.9; Steel mill - 7.4; Port + 3.1 | | Profit | Commodity coal 440 (+ 22) | Average coking enterprise profit - 16 (+ 29) | | Warehouse Receipt | Zhongyang Gengyang 1308; Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 1139 | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt 1508 | [7] 01 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - Supply - Coal Washing Plants and Mines: This section presents data on the开工 rate of sample coal washing plants, daily average clean coal output, Fenwei's raw coal production, and clean coal production over different time periods [9] - Supply - Monthly: It shows data on monthly coking bituminous coal production and coking clean coal production [10] - Supply - Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance: Data on the customs - cleared volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port, Mandula Port, and the total customs - cleared volume of three major ports are provided [12][14][16] - Inventory - Pithead: This week, the raw coal production of sample mines decreased by 97,300 tons week - on - week to 858,950 tons. Data on raw coal and clean coal inventory totals are also presented [20][21][22] - Inventory - Port: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 2.8211 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 102,300 tons. Data on coking coal inventory at various ports and the total inventory of six ports are shown [25][26][27] - Inventory - Coking Plant: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in independent coking enterprises, including full - sample and 230 - independent - coking - plant data, are provided. Data on coking coal inventory in different regions of 230 independent coking plants are also presented [28][30] - Inventory - Coking Plant - By Capacity - Available Days: Data on the available days of coking coal inventory in 230 independent coking plants by different capacity levels are shown [32] - Inventory - Steel Mill: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises and steel mill coking plants, including regional data, are provided [33] 02 Coke Fundamental Data - Supply - Capacity Utilization - Coking Plant: Data on the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises, including full - sample and 230 - independent - coking - plant data, and by different capacity levels and regions, are presented [35] - Supply - Capacity Utilization - Steel Mill: Data on the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises for coke production are provided [37] - Supply - Output - Coking Plant: Data on the daily average coke output of 230 independent coking plants and full - sample independent coking enterprises are presented [39] - Supply - Output - Steel Mill: Data on the daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises are provided [41] - Inventory - Coking Plant: Data on the inventory of coke in independent coking enterprises, including full - sample and 230 - independent - coking - plant data, are presented [43] - Inventory - Steel Mill: Data on the inventory and average available days of coke in 247 steel mill coking plants are provided, including regional data [44][47][48] - Inventory - Full - Sample Aggregate: Data on the total coke inventory of the full - sample are presented [51] - Demand - Pig Iron: Data on the coke supply - demand difference, daily average supply, daily average demand, and molten iron output of 247 steel enterprises are provided [53] - Profit: Data on the coke's plate profit, spot profit, and average profit of independent coking enterprises are presented [56][57] 03 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - Coking Coal Futures: Information on the futures market of coking coal 2509 and 2601, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest, is provided [61] - Coke Futures: Information on the futures market of coke 2509 and 2601, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest, is provided [64] - Coal and Coke Month - Spread: Data on the month - spread of coking coal (JM2509 - JM2601) and coke (J2509 - J2601) are presented [67] - Coal and Coke Spot: Data on the spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke are provided [70] - Coal and Coke Basis: By August 8, the basis of coking coal was 69.5, and the basis of coke was - 150.5. Data on the basis of coking coal and coke are presented [73][74]