工业硅：短期跟随焦煤，关注工厂复产节奏，多晶硅：第二批品牌公布，情绪降温

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon should focus on the restart rhythm of upstream factories. In the short - term, the long - and short - term logics are quite different. Before the large - scale restart of upstream factories, the market trend tends to follow coking coal futures, but the general fundamental direction is downward. It is recommended to short at high levels in the short term. The expected trading range for next week is 8200 - 9000 yuan/ton [6][7] - The sentiment in the polysilicon market has cooled down, and there is a driving force for the market to correct. Although it is a policy - driven market, there is still a short - term correction drive. It is recommended to buy on dips in the third quarter. The expected trading range for next week is 47000 - 54000 yuan/ton [7] - Considering the announcement of the second batch of registered brands of polysilicon, a long - short spread strategy for PS2511/PS2512 can be adopted. It is recommended that upstream industrial silicon and polysilicon manufacturers adopt a selling hedging strategy [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon: The futures market was oscillating strongly, mainly affected by the rise of coking coal futures and an industry self - discipline meeting. It closed at 8710 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot market prices declined, with the price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon at 8550 yuan/ton (down 500 yuan week - on - week) and Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon at 8550 yuan/ton (down 450 yuan week - on - week) [1] - Polysilicon: The futures market rose first and then fell. It was initially boosted by the rise of coking coal futures, but then declined due to the blocked negotiation progress at a Beijing meeting. It closed at 50790 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot market had some transactions, but the transaction prices did not show obvious improvement [1] 2. Supply - Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The weekly industry inventory changed from destocking to restocking. The production in the southwest region continued to increase, and some factories in Xinjiang resumed production, leading to a marginal increase in the overall weekly output. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 million tons week - on - week, while the social inventory increased by 0.7 million tons and the factory inventory decreased by 0.14 million tons, resulting in an overall increase in industry inventory [2] - Demand side: The short - term downstream demand increased marginally. The polysilicon and organic silicon sectors supported consumption. The weekly production of polysilicon continued to increase, and the production of organic silicon also increased, but the terminal consumption of organic silicon did not improve significantly. The aluminum alloy sector had rigid demand orders, and the export market was mainly for rigid needs [3] Polysilicon - Supply side: The short - term weekly output continued to increase. Some factories in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang resumed production, while some in Xinjiang shut down. The production schedule for August is expected to reach 125,000 tons. The inventory of silicon material manufacturers began to increase, and there was inventory pressure on the upstream [3] - Demand side: After a short - term repair of silicon wafer profits, the production increased. The short - term inventory of silicon wafers was relatively low, leading to price increases and production expansions by some silicon wafer manufacturers. The price increase of silicon materials was gradually transmitted to silicon wafers and battery cells, but not to components yet [4] 3. Market Outlook Industrial Silicon - The views on industrial silicon at the Kunming meeting were divided. Bulls believed that before the large - scale restart of northwest factories, the fundamentals were improving, and the hedging resistance was small. Bears believed that the restart of northwest factories was likely, which would lead to an oversupply situation [5] - The restart progress of upstream factories is crucial. If there is a large - scale restart, the supply - demand will turn to oversupply, which will drive the market further down [6] Polysilicon - The market sentiment has cooled down. The announcement of the second batch of registered brands may lead to the exit of long - position funds. However, the two approved brands have stopped production or are under technical renovation, so the impact on short - term warehouse receipts is limited. Next week's meeting information will bring policy expectations and support the market. There is a short - term correction drive, but it is a policy - driven market, and the third - quarter strategy is to buy on dips [7]