国债期货周报-20250810

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report maintains the view that the overall trend in the second half of the year is expected to be oscillatory with a downward bias. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the feedback of risk preference on off - season macro data and new developments in Sino - US trade negotiations [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - The weekly performance of Treasury bond futures contracts showed a slight recovery, and the curve flattened on a weekly basis. The market presented a differentiated feature where the short - end maintained resilience and the long - end's volatility converged. The short - end was supported by loose liquidity and demand for tax - exempt bonds, while the long - end was affected by policy expectations and data games. Attention should be paid to the pricing of newly issued Treasury bonds and the impact of the new VAT policy on the long - end curve [3][5]. 3.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking No specific content summary is provided in the report. 3.3. Seat Analysis - In terms of the daily change in net long positions by institutional type, private funds decreased by 0.35%, foreign capital decreased by 0.16%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 0.08%. In terms of weekly changes, private funds decreased by 9.44%, foreign capital increased by 2.19%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 2.75% [11].