能源化工胶版印刷纸周度报告-20250810

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the pulp price corrected, and the paper profit slightly recovered. The market price of double - offset paper declined slightly, and the decline rate narrowed. It is expected that the demand will not improve significantly next week, and the market price will decline slightly. The current pre - tax and after - tax gross margins of double - offset paper are negative, but the paper mill's profit has slightly recovered with the pulp price correction [51]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - The inventory days of domestic double - offset paper decreased by 0.90% compared with last Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.41 percentage points week - on - week. Social orders changed little, and dealers were cautious in stocking up, with the paper mill's shipment rhythm being average [6]. - The operating load rate of domestic double - offset paper was 49.18%, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points compared with last week. Most paper mills were operating normally, but some production lines in Jiangsu were shut down, leading to a decline in the industry's operating rate [6]. - Asia Pulp & Paper Co., Ltd. announced an increase of 150 yuan/ton in the order - taking price of broad - leaf pulp, only for long - term contract customers [6]. - Suzano announced a 20 - dollar/ton increase in the FOB price of bleached eucalyptus broad - leaf pulp "Goldfish" in the Asian market in August 2025 [6]. 3.2 Market Trends - On August 8, the average price of 70g high - white double - offset paper was 4993.75 yuan/ton, with no change compared with the previous day and last week [9]. - In the spot market, the prices of some double - offset paper products in Shandong and Guangdong markets decreased or remained unchanged. The pre - tax and after - tax gross margins of double - offset paper increased by 17 yuan/ton and 15 yuan/ton respectively [10]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Data 3.3.1 Industry Capacity - In 2024, the domestic double - offset paper industry's capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The annual output was about 9.478 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 57% [19]. 3.3.2 Weekly Production and Capacity Utilization - This week, the domestic double - offset paper industry's output was 165,300 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 49.2% [24]. 3.3.3 Weekly Sales and Inventory - This week, the domestic double - offset paper industry's sales volume was 168,400 tons, and the enterprise inventory was 343,600 tons [28]. 3.3.4 Import and Export - In June, the domestic double - offset paper import volume was about 15,000 tons, and the export volume was about 66,000 tons [36]. 3.3.5 Inventory Situation - In terms of inventory days, Central China > East China > South China; the social inventory pressure is higher than the enterprise inventory [42]. 3.3.6 Terminal Consumption - In recent years, the growth rate of the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [47]. 3.4 Market Judgment - Supply: Domestically, the output this week was 165,300 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 49.2%. In June, the import volume was about 15,000 tons [51]. - Demand: Domestically, the sales volume this week was 168,400 tons. In June, the export volume was about 66,000 tons [51]. - Price: The average market price of 70g wood - pulp high - white double - offset paper decreased by 0.08% week - on - week, and the decline rate narrowed by 1.82 percentage points. The average price of 70g wood - pulp natural - white double - offset paper decreased by 0.39% week - on - week, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.80 percentage points [51]. - Outlook: It is expected that the demand will not improve significantly next week, dealers will sell goods flexibly, and the market price will decline slightly [51]. - Valuation: Based on the current pulp price, the pre - tax gross margin of double - offset paper is about - 36 yuan/ton, and the after - tax gross margin is about - 205 yuan/ton [51]. - Strategy: The futures variety has not been launched yet [51].