GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-08-10 08:33Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" for coal mining companies [3][5]. Core Viewpoints - Global thermal coal exports decreased by 5.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with total shipments dropping from 378.65 million tons in 2024 to 359.65 million tons [2]. - The report highlights the importance of major coal enterprises such as China Coal Energy and China Shenhua, as well as companies showing potential for turnaround like China Qinfa [3]. - The report notes that coal prices are stabilizing after a period of decline, with Newcastle coal prices at $116 per ton and South African Richards Bay coal at $92.4 per ton [6][34]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining Industry Overview - The report indicates a 5% decline in global thermal coal exports in the first half of 2025, with significant drops in major exporting countries like Indonesia and Australia [2][6]. - Indonesia's coal exports fell by 6% due to weather disruptions and regulatory changes, while Australia's exports decreased by 4% due to operational bottlenecks [6]. Key Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on state-owned enterprises such as China Coal Energy and China Shenhua, as well as turnaround candidates like China Qinfa [3]. - Other recommended stocks include Shaanxi Coal and Electricity, Yancoal, and Jin Control Coal Industry, which are expected to perform well in the coming years [3][7]. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Coal prices are showing signs of stabilization, with Newcastle coal prices at $116 per ton, unchanged from the previous week, while South African coal prices decreased slightly [6][34]. - The report notes that the demand for coal power is stabilizing, particularly during peak demand seasons [36].