金融工程市场跟踪周报：震荡上行仍是市场主基调-20250810

• The report discusses the "Volume Timing Signal" model, which indicates a cautious outlook for all major indices as of August 8, 2025[22][23] - The "HS300 Upward Stock Proportion Sentiment Indicator" is introduced, calculated as the proportion of HS300 constituent stocks with positive returns over the past N days. This indicator is currently above 80%, signaling high market sentiment[23][25] - The "Momentum Sentiment Indicator" is explained, using two smoothed lines (fast and slow) with different windows (N1=50, N2=35). When the fast line exceeds the slow line, it signals a bullish market view. As of August 8, 2025, the fast line is above the slow line, maintaining a positive outlook[26][28] - The "Moving Average Sentiment Indicator" is based on the number of HS300 closing prices above eight moving averages (parameters: 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233). If the count exceeds 5, it indicates a bullish view. As of August 8, 2025, the HS300 index is in a positive sentiment zone[32][36] - Cross-sectional volatility analysis shows a week-on-week decline in HS300, CSI500, and CSI1000 indices, indicating a weaker short-term alpha environment. Over the past quarter, cross-sectional volatility for these indices is at mid-to-lower levels compared to the past six months[37][40] - Time-series volatility analysis also shows a week-on-week decline for HS300, CSI500, and CSI1000 indices, with the past quarter's volatility at mid-to-lower levels compared to the past six months, suggesting a weaker alpha environment[40][42]