房地产行业周度观点更新：产业政策的三层空间-20250810

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Viewpoints - The policy goal of stabilizing the market has somewhat boosted market expectations, but since April, marginal downward pressure has increased, leading to a gradual rise in the probability of policy easing, with the timing being the only variable [5][9] - The rapid decline in industry volume and price may have already passed, with structural highlights in core areas and quality properties [5] - The current stock positions are not far from the bottom, providing room for a rebound, especially for leading real estate companies with low inventory and strong product capabilities [5] - Focus on leading real estate firms with stable cash flow, as well as leading brokerage, commercial real estate, and state-owned property management companies [5] Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index increased by 1.84% this week, with an excess return of 0.61% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 18th out of 32 industries [6][16] - Year-to-date, the Yangtze River Real Estate Index has increased by 1.39%, with an excess return of -2.94% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 29th out of 32 [6][16] Policy Updates - Shanghai has clarified that the overall renovation of urban villages will accelerate by 2026, while Beijing continues to optimize real estate-related policies to stimulate demand [7][20] - Specific measures include removing the limit on the number of homes that can be purchased outside the Fifth Ring Road in Beijing and expanding the scope of public housing fund loans [7][20] Sales Data - The transaction volume in sample cities has shown a seasonal decline, with new home transaction area in 37 cities down by 19.1% year-on-year [8][21] - The cumulative year-to-date new home transaction area in 37 cities is down by 5.3%, while the second-hand home transaction area in 19 cities is up by 14.6% [8][21] Weekly Highlights - The downward pressure on volume and price in the industry has increased since Q2, particularly in core cities, necessitating further easing of policies [9] - The report outlines three layers of understanding regarding future industrial policy space, including optimization of down payment, interest rates, and purchase limits [9]