增值税新规后，债市交易隐含税率几何？

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Through multiple - dimensional calculations such as treasury bond futures trends, new local bond issuance pricing, and historical experience of China Development Bank bond implicit tax rates, the possible tax rate space after the new bond interest VAT regulation may be significantly lower than 6% [3][38]. - To cooperate with the transition period at the initial stage of the implementation of the new VAT regulation, monetary policy is expected to remain loose in the short - term [3][38]. - The bond market may still be supported in the short - term, but the odds space is limited, and it may face headwinds in the medium - term [4][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Tax Rate Trading Perspective - The implicit trading VAT rate of treasury bond futures may be between 0.9% - 3.1%. After the new VAT regulation was announced on August 1, 2025, the price changes of TS/TF/T 2063 contracts largely reflected the impact of the new regulation, considering the third - quarter treasury bond issuance plan and futures contract maturity dates [10][14]. 3.2 Latest Local Bond Issuance Pricing Perspective - The implicit VAT rate of local bond issuance pricing may be between 0.9% - 3.2%. Based on the yield levels of tax - free old bonds in the same region and similar maturities as a benchmark, the implicit VAT rate of the new local bonds issued on August 8, 2025, was estimated [18][23]. 3.3 China Development Bank Bond Historical Experience Perspective - From the historical experience of China Development Bank bonds, the subsequent implicit VAT rate may be between 0.7% - 3.1%. Although China Development Bank bonds are subject to a 25% income tax on interest income, the implicit tax rate is often much lower than 25% due to trading advantages, and has mostly been between 3% - 13% in recent years [27][29]. 3.4 Monetary Policy Outlook - Static Calculation: From a static perspective, assuming that VAT is fully borne by investors, the new VAT regulation may bring about 230 billion yuan in fiscal revenue in a stable state. The average annual new fiscal revenue is about 2.71 billion yuan [32][34]. - Need for Monetary Policy Coordination: From a dynamic perspective, while the fiscal revenue increases due to VAT, the interest - payment cost also rises to some extent. Therefore, to reduce fiscal costs and enhance tax effects, monetary policy is expected to remain loose in the short - term [37]. - Bond Market Outlook: August - October may be a volatile period for the bond market. The short - to medium - term bonds may perform steadily, and the yield curve may steepen. The 10 - year treasury bond around 1.7% may not be cost - effective. The pressure in August may not be significant, but the transition between the third and fourth quarters may be a risk window [6][40].