核心通胀回升为A股提供估值支撑

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index trends is "oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market remains overvalued, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching its 2024/10/8 high and the PETTM of Wind All - A at 20.7x. China's foreign trade sector is strong, and domestic policies are showing positive changes, which may contribute to the market's overvaluation [3][11] Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Views and Macroeconomic Key Event Overview - Next Week's View: Pay attention to changes in July's economic data. Despite the market being overvalued, China's foreign trade is strong, and domestic policies are showing positive changes, which may be the reason for the market's overvaluation [3][11] - This Week's Key Events: Multiple significant events occurred from August 4th to 8th, including changes in service trade deficits, central bank liquidity operations, policy releases on finance and education, and international trade policies [12][15][18] 2. One - Week Market Quotes Overview - Global Stock Market Weekly Overview: Global stock markets denominated in US dollars rose this week (08/04 - 08/08). The MSCI Global Index increased by 2.52%, with frontier markets (+3.95%) > developed markets (+2.55%) > emerging markets (+2.25%). South African stocks led the global rise with a 6.29% increase, while Indian stocks had the worst performance, dropping 1.09% [2][26] - Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview: Chinese equity assets rose significantly this week. A - shares > Chinese concept stocks > Hong Kong stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1696.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 113.3 billion yuan from last week. Most indexes rose by over 1%, with the micro - cap stock index rising 4.49% and the ChiNext Index rising 0.49% [2][29] - Weekly Overview of GICS First - Level Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets: Most global GICS first - level industries rose this week. The leading industry was materials (+4.15%), and the underperforming industry was healthcare (-0.44%). In the Chinese market, materials led the rise (+3.53%), and healthcare led the decline (-0.72%) [32] - Weekly Overview of China A - Share CITIC First - Level Industries: Among China A - share CITIC first - level industries, 28 rose (6 last week) and 2 fell (24 last week). The leading industry was non - ferrous metals (+5.83%), and the industry with the largest decline was pharmaceuticals (-0.79%) [2][33] - Weekly Overview of China A - Share Styles: The growth style outperformed the value style, and the market - cap style favored small - cap stocks [38] - Overview of Stock Index Futures Basis: Provided the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months [40][42] 3. Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview - Broad - Based Index Valuation: Presented the PE, PB, and their changes and eight - year percentiles of multiple broad - based indexes such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 100, etc. [47] - First - Level Industry Valuation: Showed the PE, PB, and their changes and eight - year percentiles of various first - level industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, etc. [48] - Equity Risk Premium of Broad - Based Indexes: The ERP of the CSI 300 decreased slightly this week, while the ERPs of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 increased slightly [49][54] - Consensus Expected Earnings Growth of Broad - Based Indexes: Adjusted the expected earnings growth rates of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 for 2025 and 2026 [55] 4. Liquidity and Fund Flow Tracking - Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: This week, the 10 - year yield decreased, the 1 - year yield decreased, and the spread widened. The US dollar index was 98, and the offshore RMB was 7.19 [65] - Trading - Type Fund Tracking: The average daily trading volume of northbound funds decreased by 31.4 billion yuan compared to last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 32.6 billion yuan [64] - Fund Inflows through ETFs: Tracked the number and share changes of ETFs tracking the CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI A500. The shares of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 and CSI 500 decreased, while those tracking the CSI 1000 increased [68][69][71] 5. Domestic Macroeconomic High - Frequency Data Tracking - Supply Side: Tire operating rates rebounded [75][77] - Consumption Side: Real estate transactions remained sluggish, and the year - on - year growth rate of passenger car wholesale sales declined [83][92] - Inflation Observation: Producer prices rebounded from a low level, while agricultural product prices reached a new low for the year [94][95]