能源化工短纤、瓶片周度报告-20250810

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - fiber (PF): In the short - term, it is in a volatile market with limited downside space. In the medium - term, it is weak. The demand is expected to improve in mid - to late August, and the processing fee is expected to expand as the peak season approaches [7]. - Bottle chips (PR): In the short - term, the downside space is limited, and there may be a stable rebound. In the medium - term, the pressure is still obvious. There is a de - stocking pattern from July to August, but there are pressure factors after the end of production cuts and during the peak season [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Short - fiber (PF) 3.1.1 Valuation and Profit - Spot fluctuations are small, the futures market is weak, and the basis has strengthened slightly. The futures processing fee is still weak [101][106]. - The current spot processing fee is 900 - 1000 yuan/ton, and a processing fee below 900 yuan/ton is considered undervalued [7]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Operation - Supply: Based on low processing fees and inventory pressure, factories maintain high - level production. The average factory operating rate this week is 90.6%, and the operating rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber for spinning is 95.3%. It is expected to remain stable or increase slightly in the future [7]. - Demand: The terminal weaving operating rate has bottomed out and is rising. Short - term demand is still weak, but there is replenishment at low prices. The 1.4D equity inventory is 10.6 days, and the physical inventory is 23 days. Sino - US trade negotiations may lead to an increase in foreign trade orders after the new round of tariffs is implemented in August [7]. 3.1.3 Strategy - Single - side: None - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: Go long on PF and short on PR when the spread is below 450 [7] 3.2 Bottle chips (PR) 3.2.1 Valuation and Profit - The spot processing fee has strengthened to 400 - 450 yuan/ton, which is relatively reasonable. There is increasing demand for short - covering or speculative purchases when the price is below 4900 yuan/ton [10]. - Aggregate costs have decreased, and export profits are fluctuating weakly [50]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Operation - Supply: After this round of production cuts, the processing fee has not risen above the factory cost. Factories are expected to maintain the current production - cut intensity until the end of August and gradually resume production in September, but may still maintain partial production cuts. The operating rate this week is 79% [8]. - Demand: Domestic downstream operating rates remain high, and there is restocking at low prices. Ocean freight has declined, and the impact on exports from July to August has decreased. There is a slight de - stocking pattern from July to August, and the factory inventory is about 17 days this week, showing a month - on - month decrease [8][9]. 3.2.3 Strategy - Single - side: None - Inter - period: Go long on the 10 - 11 or 10 - 12 spreads at low prices - Inter - variety: Go long on PF and short on PR at low prices [11] 3.2.4 Other Aspects - "Anti - involution" Impact: It mainly leads to potential cost increases, and has little impact on supply as most bottle - chip devices are less than 10 years old [14]. - Base and Spread: The emotional premium has declined, and the basis is strongly volatile [24]. - Price and Spread: The price has slightly decreased this week, with the domestic price at 5920 - 5950 yuan/ton and the FOB price at 770 - 795 US dollars/ton. The substitution relationship with PVC and PP shows different characteristics [27][30][31]. - Production and Operation Rate: Since 2024, the production capacity has been expanding, and the current effective production capacity is 2.168 million tons. This week, the bottle - chip load has remained at 79.3%, and the weekly production is still at a high level on a month - on - month basis [35]. - Raw Material Operation: There are new PTA device overhauls, and MEG has also shown certain operating characteristics [42][49]. - Cost and Profit: Aggregate costs have decreased, the bottle - chip spot processing fee has been repaired, and export profits are fluctuating weakly [50]. - Inventory: The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories has decreased, and the domestic polyester bottle - chip factory inventory has dropped to 17 days. There is a de - stocking pattern of social inventory from July to August [55][60]. - Device Changes: The production - cut expectation has been extended. Some factories plan to restart in September, and there are also new device investment plans [61]. - Demand: Downstream operating rates are at a high level and slightly increasing. Beverage consumption from January to June 2025 is relatively weak year - on - year, but there are new production lines being put into operation. Edible oil demand remains neutral, and sheet demand is average, but supermarket consumption has improved month - on - month [64][70][73][76]. - Global Trade Flow: Overseas bottle - chip production capacity has little growth, and China's bottle - chip exports have multiple trade flows [80]. - Export Situation: In June 2025, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 657,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. The short - term is affected by ocean freight, but the trend is strong [83]. - Anti - Dumping Policy: Multiple countries have implemented anti - dumping policies on Chinese bottle chips [94]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: There is a tight balance from July to August, and inventory will accumulate again after September [95].