光大证券农林牧渔行业周报：7月猪企销售月报解读-20250810

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [4] Core Views - The pig farming sector is expected to enter a phase of supply and demand balance in August, with a positive outlook for pig prices as the industry approaches a long-term profitability uptrend [3] - The report highlights the seasonal decrease in pig output, with a total of 15.27 million pigs slaughtered by 13 listed companies in July, reflecting a 6.15% decrease month-on-month but a 25.12% increase year-on-year [2][13] - The average price of live pigs has shown a downward trend, with the national average price on August 8 being 13.71 yuan/kg, a 4.33% decrease week-on-week [1][29] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - The total number of pigs slaughtered in July was approximately 15.27 million, with a month-on-month decrease of 6.15% and a year-on-year increase of 25.12% [2][13] - The average price of live pigs in July was 14-15 yuan/kg, with a slight increase in the overall monthly average price [2][14] - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has continued to decline, with an average of 124.16 kg in July, down 0.9 kg from the previous month [17][29] Price Trends - The average price of piglets was 30.4 yuan/kg, down 1.65% week-on-week, while the average price of pork was 20.46 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 26% [28][29] - The report notes that the price of white feather broiler chickens has increased to 7.14 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week rise of 4.54% [38] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the pig farming sector, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe, as they are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in pig prices [3] - It also suggests monitoring companies in the feed and animal health sectors, such as Haida Group and Reap Bio, due to the expected increase in demand driven by rising pig stocks [3]