外汇期货周度报告：俄乌局势生变，美元短期走弱-20250810

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints - Market risk appetite has rebounded, with most stock markets rising, most bond yields falling, and the US Treasury yield rising to 4.28%. The US dollar index dropped 0.97% to 98.2, and most non - US currencies appreciated. Gold prices rose 1% to $3,397 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 15, the spot commodity index closed higher, and Brent crude oil fell 4.9% to $67.8 per barrel [1][5][9] - The implementation of US tariffs, the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin, the approaching expiration of the Sino - US tariff easing period, changes in the Fed's internal stance, inflation expectations, and the UK's interest rate cut policy have all influenced market trading logic. Inflation pressure increasing and delaying interest rate cuts will bring adjustment pressure to the stock market [2] - The upcoming meeting between the US and Russian leaders may have limited effect on resolving the Russia - Ukraine conflict. There are variables in the process, and the US dollar index continues to face downward pressure [37][38] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite rebounded, most stock markets rose, most bond yields fell, and the US Treasury yield rose to 4.28%. The US dollar index dropped 0.97% to 98.2, most non - US currencies appreciated, gold prices rose 1% to $3,397 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 15, the spot commodity index closed higher, and Brent crude oil fell 4.9% to $67.8 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rose, with both US and A - shares rising over 2%. Developed markets' stock markets rebounded, the S&P 500 rose 2.43%, emerging markets' stock markets mostly rose, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.11%, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.43%, and the Nikkei 225 Index rose 2.5%. The implementation of US tariffs, the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin, the approaching expiration of the Sino - US tariff easing period, changes in the Fed's internal stance, inflation expectations, and the UK's interest rate cut policy have all influenced the market. Inflation pressure increasing and delaying interest rate cuts will bring adjustment pressure to the stock market. Domestic economic data was better than expected, but inflation pressure was still low, and the stock market's optimistic sentiment fluctuated but remained strong overall [10][11][13] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond market yields mostly declined, while the US Treasury yield rose to 4.28%. Eurozone government bonds mostly declined, and emerging market bond yields mostly declined. The UK central bank cut interest rates as expected, but the number of voting members against the cut increased. The nomination of Milan as a temporary Fed governor may increase the dovish camp in the Fed. The demand for US 10 - year Treasury bond auctions was poor, and US Treasury yields still have room to rise. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury yield slightly dropped to 1.7%, the Sino - US interest rate spread inverted slightly widened to 258bp, and the domestic bond market rebounded, but the rebound space was limited [14][18][22] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index dropped 0.97% to 98.2, and most non - US currencies appreciated. The offshore RMB rose 0.06%, the euro rose 0.48%, the pound rose 1.29%, the yen fell 0.23%, the Swiss franc fell 0.53%, the rand rose 2%, and the real, peso, Thai baht, and rupee rose over 1%. The Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Canadian dollar closed higher [27][29][30] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 1% to $3,397 per ounce. US tariff policies and the increase in the Fed's dovish camp pushed up the price of gold, but the price remained in a volatile range. Brent crude oil fell 4.9% to $67.8 per barrel. The upcoming meeting between the US and Russia and OPEC+ production increases made the crude oil supply - demand pattern remain loose. The domestic industrial product market was in a stage of increased long - short game, and the commodity spot index closed higher with fluctuations [31][33] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The meeting between US and Russian leaders is scheduled. The expected effect of this meeting on resolving the Russia - Ukraine conflict is limited, and there are variables in the process [34][37] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: Japan's market is closed for one day - Tuesday: US July CPI, July NFIB Small Business Confidence Index; Australia's central bank interest rate meeting - Wednesday: Germany's July CPI - Thursday: US July PPI, weekly initial jobless claims - Friday: China's July social retail sales, industrial added value; US July retail sales, preliminary August University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index [39]