债券周报：增值税新规一周，市场百态-20250810

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Maintains the view that August - October is a headwind period for the bond market. Currently, it has entered the starting point of the second stage of the bond market's three - step process in the second half of the year. August is regarded as an oscillatory adjustment period after redemption, but the market has not shown a trend improvement in the quarterly dimension [26]. - In the short term, there may be a small - band long - trading window in the first half of August. New bond issuance pressure is low, the VAT policy still benefits old bonds, large banks' bond - allocation power is strong, funds are loose, upcoming weak financial data may provide a profit - taking window, and historically, policy windows usually occur in the second half of August [28]. - For trading portfolios, seize the sentiment - repair period in the first half of August for small - band trading. Take profit at around 1.65% and pay attention to spread opportunities brought by the VAT policy [45]. - For allocation portfolios, wait for new bonds to adjust to more suitable positions, and consider old bonds at curve convex points, such as 6y CDB, 7y ADBC, 10y CDB, and 15y treasury bonds [48]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Value - added Tax New Rule: One - week Market Conditions - Emotional Impact Stage (August 1st, 4th): The "old - new cut - off" of the VAT policy led to tax - exemption advantages for old bonds. Institutions rushed to buy old bonds, with the yield of the 10y treasury active bond dropping from 1.715% to 1.68%, then rising back to around 1.7% due to profit - taking and a strong stock market [13]. - Bank Bond - buying Stage (August 5th - 7th): Banks continued to buy bonds, with the intensity weakening. On August 6th, the Agricultural Development Bank and the Export - Import Bank rushed to issue tax - exempt bonds. The auction results started to price in negative factors as investors awaited higher - yielding new bonds [16][19]. - New Bond Issuance Stage (August 8th): The first batch of local bonds in Hebei and Hubei were auctioned. The adjustment of Hebei bonds was large, attracting more investors to Hubei bonds. The overall impact of VAT on new bonds was controllable, with the adjustment range mostly within the 3 - 6% tax rate [22][24]. 3.2 Bond Market Strategy - Quarterly Dimension: Maintains that August - October is a headwind period for the bond market. The bond market is in a difficult trading situation, and accounts need to gradually increase liquidity [26]. - Short - term (First Half of August): There may be a small - band long - trading window. New bond issuance pressure is low, funds are loose, weak financial data may provide a profit - taking window, and policy windows usually occur in the second half of August [28]. - Trading Portfolios: Seize the sentiment - repair period in the first half of August. Take profit at around 1.65% and pay attention to spread opportunities [45]. - Allocation Portfolios: Wait for new bonds to adjust and consider old bonds at curve convex points [48]. 3.3 Interest - rate Bond Market Review - Overall Situation: The central bank's support and the VAT new policy had limited impact. Long - term bonds fluctuated within a narrow range. The yield curve steepened, with the 1y treasury active bond yield down 1.5BP, the 10y down 0.4BP, and the 30y up 1.8BP [9]. - Funding: The central bank's OMO had a large - scale net withdrawal, but the funding was balanced and loose. DR001 and DR007 were at low levels, and the central bank's front - loaded 3M term repurchase operations showed a supportive attitude [10]. - Primary Issuance: Net financing of treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit increased, while that of local bonds decreased [69]. - Benchmark Changes: The term spreads of treasury bonds and CDB bonds widened. Short - term bond yields performed better than long - term ones [63].