Report Industry Investment Rating - Alumina: Oscillating [4] Core View of the Report - The alumina futures price is expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend. The supply of alumina has turned to a slight surplus with the release of复产 and new production capacity, and the continuous generation of warehouse receipts exerts significant pressure on the futures price [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview Raw Materials - Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. The含税 price of 58/5 ore in Shanxi was 700 yuan/ton, in Henan was 658 yuan/ton, and the arrival含税 price of 60/6 bauxite in Guizhou was 596 yuan/ton. Continuous rainfall in core bauxite - producing areas increased the difficulty of mine operation and ore transportation, causing raw material supply shortages for some alumina enterprises [1][11]. - The price index of Guinea ore (45/3) remained in the range of 73 - 75 US dollars/dry ton. The shipping volume from Guinea in July was about 11 million wet tons, and the impact of the decline in shipping on the supply side will be reflected in August, September, and October. The Guinean government revoked the memorandum of understanding with Shunda Mining, halting production and shipping again. Miners' willingness to support prices strengthened, but downstream buyers were not interested in purchasing. During the period, 4.813 million tons of new ore arrived, including 3.818 million tons from Guinea and 0.885 million tons from Australia. The Cape ship freight from Guinea to China remained at 23.5 - 24 US dollars/ton [1][11]. Alumina - Alumina spot prices rose last week. The northern comprehensive price of ALD was in the range of 3230 - 3331 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week; the domestic weighted index was 3289.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.6 yuan/ton. The port quotation of imported alumina was 3400 - 3450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The overall spot market was in a wait - and - see mood with few public transactions. In the northern market, 10,000 tons of spot alumina were traded, a decrease of 21,600 tons from the previous week, and the weighted transaction price was 3227 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton [2][12]. - Overseas, 30,000 tons of Indian alumina were traded at FOB 377.25 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12.05 US dollars/ton from the late - July transaction price. As of last week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2805 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 493 yuan/ton. The average profit of the alumina industry rose to about 200 yuan/ton, enhancing the stability of production. The national alumina production capacity was 113.02 million tons, with 95.35 million tons in operation, an increase of 600,000 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate was 84.4% [2][12]. Demand - Domestically, the operating capacity of Guangxi Baise Yinhai Aluminum increased to 120,000 tons, an increase of about 10,000 tons from the previous week. The operating capacity of Yunnan Honghe New Materials Co., Ltd. increased by 30,000 tons to about 50,000 tons, and the enterprise's start - up work was in progress. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 43.853 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons from the previous week. Overseas demand remained unchanged, with the latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity at 29.59 million tons, unchanged from the previous week [13]. Inventory - As of Thursday (August 7), the national alumina inventory was 3.285 million tons, an increase of 42,000 tons from the previous week. The improvement in upstream execution efficiency led to an increase in the arrival of alumina at electrolytic aluminum plants, and the inventory continued to rise. The production stability of alumina enterprises improved, increasing the bagged inventory in the plants. The port inventory fluctuated slightly, and the delivery warehouse began to show an increase, with a slight increase in the in - transit and yard inventory [13]. Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 26,182 tons, an increase of 19,567 tons from the previous week [14]. 2. Summary of Key Event News in the Industry Chain During the Week - The Australian alumina quotation was about 373 US dollars/ton as of Thursday (August 7), a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous week. The estimated cost of reaching Chinese ports was about 3283 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton from the previous week. The domestic spot price fluctuated slightly, with a theoretical import profit of - 13 yuan/ton, and about 42 yuan/ton when calculated based on the current southern regional price [15]. - Due to the rainy season restricting local ore mining, two plants of an alumina enterprise in Shanxi reduced production. The daily alumina output of Jiaokou Plant decreased from 6500 tons to 4500 - 5000 tons, and the Xiaoyi Plant maintained an output of about 4500 tons, with production to be adjusted according to ore supply [15]. - On August 7, 2000 tons of alumina were traded in Guizhou at an ex - factory price of 3383 yuan/ton, a transaction between an alumina enterprise and a local downstream aluminum plant [15]. 3. Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost Side - This part includes data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic steam coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various provinces [16][19][26]. 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - It involves data on domestic provincial alumina spot prices, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina [32][36][40]. 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - This section contains data on electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant alumina inventory, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, domestic total social alumina inventory, and the quantity of alumina warehouse receipts and open interest on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, as well as the ratio of open interest to warehouse receipts [42][47][50].
仓单陆续生成，氧化铝盘面偏弱运行
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-08-10 11:14