维持金铜铝增配，锂供给扰动价格上行可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for metals, copper, and aluminum, suggesting an increase in allocation [8]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the potential for price increases in lithium due to supply disruptions, particularly from large mines in Jiangxi facing production halts [2][5]. - Industrial metals have rebounded, driven by a weaker dollar and renewed anti-involution sentiment, with copper and aluminum prices increasing by 1.4% and 1.7% respectively [6][24]. - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of rare earths and tungsten, with a focus on their value reassessment amid geopolitical tensions and supply chain developments [5]. Summary by Sections Lithium and Supply Dynamics - Lithium supply is expected to tighten significantly due to potential production halts in Jiangxi, leading to a substantial reduction in the annual supply-demand surplus [2][5]. - The report notes that domestic mining regulations are becoming stricter, which may further impact lithium production [5]. Precious Metals - The report suggests focusing on gold stocks for a potential second wave of market activity this year, recommending an increase in allocation as gold prices stabilize above $3,500 per ounce [4]. - The analysis indicates that gold stocks may experience a quarterly resonance across price, valuation, and style dimensions [4]. Strategic and Energy Metals - The report identifies strategic metals like rare earths and tungsten as having significant upside potential due to government policies and market dynamics [5]. - It mentions that the price of rare earths has shown improvement, with Baotou Steel Rare Earth's price for rare earth concentrate rising to 19,100 yuan per ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [5]. Industrial Metals - Industrial metals are experiencing price fluctuations, with copper and aluminum showing signs of recovery due to macroeconomic factors and expectations of interest rate cuts [6][24]. - The report notes that the overall demand for copper and aluminum is likely to decline in the second half of the year, but potential policy support could stabilize prices [6]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the metal materials and mining sector outperformed the broader market, with a 5.24% increase compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 2.11% rise [14]. - Key stocks in the sector, such as Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao, are highlighted for their strong performance [6][22].