债基、货基2025Q2季报解读：债基拥挤度逐步提升，货基规模创新高

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2 2025, the bond market environment was more favorable than in Q1. After the relaxation of funds, some bond varieties returned to a "positive carry" state, leading to an increased willingness among bond funds to add leverage, actively extend durations, and explore credit spreads, resulting in a rise in bond market congestion. The scale of money market funds reached a new high, and after the funds were relaxed, the risk of negative deviation significantly decreased. The product allocation preference shifted from fund lending to bank deposits [3][5]. - Looking ahead, due to factors such as the upcoming approval of policy - based financial instruments, continuous risk - preference disturbances, and insufficient expectations of interest rate cuts, bond market trading will enter a "hard mode". The 10 - year Treasury bond yield may rise slightly to a core fluctuation range of 1.65 - 1.75%. It is advisable to conduct bond swaps and take profits when market sentiment improves. In addition, although the market is relatively friendly in early August, there are still disturbances from factors such as expectations of broad - credit policies and risk preferences. During bond market adjustments, a fund redemption wave may be triggered, further amplifying market volatility. Institutions should maintain account liquidity and seize small - band trading opportunities [4][166]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Funds: Risk - Aversion Sentiment Drives Bond Market Recovery, Bond Fund Scale Resumes Expansion, and Performance Turns Positive 3.1.1 Asset Scale - In Q2 2025, the overall bond fund scale increased by 861.5 billion yuan. As of the end of Q2, there were 3,862 bond funds, accounting for 29.92% of all funds. The net issuance was 54 funds, and the asset net value increased to 10.93 trillion yuan. The share of bond funds mainly increased in pure - bond funds, while the share of convertible bond funds decreased slightly. Among them, passive index bond funds had the most significant scale increase, supported by the expansion of market - making credit bond ETFs [11][15][17]. 3.1.2 Subscription and Redemption - The redemption pressure on pure - bond funds in Q2 was significantly relieved compared to Q1. The net subscription ratio of short - term bond funds rebounded to 56.52%, the highest among all bond funds. The subscription sentiment of "fixed - income +" bond funds was weaker than that of pure - bond funds. The net subscription ratios of mixed first - tier and second - tier bond funds decreased, and the median net subscription - redemption rates also declined [31][35]. 3.1.3 Performance - The annualized return of bond funds in Q2 2025 increased to 4.10%. "Fixed - income +" bond funds performed better than pure - bond funds. The performance ranking was second - tier bond funds (5.21%) > first - tier bond funds (4.63%) > medium - and long - term pure - bond funds (3.82%) > passive index bond funds (3.63%) > short - term pure - bond funds (2.55%) [36]. 3.1.4 Leverage Ratio - In Q2 2025, due to the central bank's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the funds' price center decreased, and some varieties returned to a "positive carry" state. The overall leverage ratio of bond funds increased by 1.29 percentage points to around 119.94%, and the leverage ratios of various types of bond funds also increased [43]. 3.1.5 Weighted Average Duration of Top - 5 Heavy - Position Bonds - In Q2 2025, after the rapid decline in bond market yields, institutions generally extended durations to seek returns. The weighted average duration of the top - 5 heavy - position bonds of existing bond funds increased by 0.69 years to 3.44 years. The durations of all types of funds increased [46][47]. 3.1.6 Asset Allocation - Large - scale Asset Allocation: In Q2 2025, bond funds mainly increased their bond holdings by 1.14 trillion yuan, with the proportion of bonds increasing to 96.51%. The proportions of stocks, bank deposits, and other assets decreased [62]. - Bond Category Asset Allocation: The proportion of credit bonds held by bond funds increased by 0.97 percentage points to 49.13%, while the proportion of interest - rate bonds decreased by 0.84 percentage points to 44.04% [88]. - Rating Changes of Heavy - Position Bonds: Overall, the bond funds' holdings of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds showed an obvious trend of concentration towards AAA - rated bonds. Pure - bond funds focused more on liquidity management, with both urban investment bonds and industrial bonds concentrating on AAA - rated bonds. "Fixed - income +" funds had more obvious credit - sinking, with an increased proportion of AA - rated and below bonds [106][107]. 3.2 Money Market Funds: "Deposit Migration" Drives Scale to a New High, and Allocation Demand Shifts to Deposits and Certificates of Deposit 3.2.1 Traditional Money Market Funds - Asset Scale: At the end of Q2 2025, the number of traditional money market funds remained at 364, and the scale exceeded 14 trillion yuan, an increase of 904.6 billion yuan from the previous quarter, a 6.8% increase [121]. - Subscription and Redemption: In Q2 2025, 52.47% of money market funds had net subscriptions. Both the retail and institutional ends had net subscriptions [127][130]. - Performance: The average 7 - day annualized yield of money market funds in Q2 was 1.26%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points from Q1. The yields of Yu'E Bao and WeChat Licaitong fluctuated at a low level of 1.2 - 1.4% [136]. - Leverage Ratio and Duration: In Q2 2025, the average leverage ratio of money market funds increased by 1.82 percentage points to 105.78%, and the average remaining maturity increased by 7.05 days to 82.72 days [137]. - Deviation: In Q2 2025, the absolute - value average of money market fund deviations was basically the same as in Q1, but the number of funds with a minimum negative deviation decreased significantly [141]. - Asset Allocation: In terms of large - scale asset allocation, money market funds reduced fund lending and mainly increased bank deposit holdings. In terms of bond category asset allocation, they mainly increased their holdings of certificates of deposit [144][148]. 3.2.2 Floating - Net - Value Money Market Funds - In Q2 2025, the scale of floating - net - value money market funds decreased slightly. The average leverage ratio decreased to 101.54%, and the average remaining maturity decreased to 39.33 days. In terms of asset allocation, they mainly reduced bond and fund - lending holdings and increased bank deposit holdings. In terms of bond asset allocation, they mainly reduced their holdings of certificates of deposit. The yield performance was better than that of traditional money market funds [153][156]. 3.3 Main Conclusions - In Q2 2025, bond funds actively added leverage, extended durations, and explored credit varieties. Money market funds also added leverage, extended durations, and shifted their asset - allocation preferences from fund lending to bank deposits [164][165].