工业硅现实与预期存分歧，多晶硅新增交割品牌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [5] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon's fundamentals are improving marginally and entering a destocking state, but there are differences between reality and expectations. Short - term, a buy - on - dips strategy is recommended [2][4]. - The increase in polysilicon delivery brands may have a negative impact on the sentiment of the futures market. In the short - term, the price may range from 45,000 to 57,000 yuan/ton, and in the long - term, it may reach over 60,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon increased by 215 yuan/ton week - on - week to 8,710 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 8,550 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon increased by 1,395 yuan/ton to 50,790 yuan/ton. The transaction price of N - type re -投料 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 47,200 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Reality and Expectations Diverge, Polysilicon Adds Delivery Brands - Industrial silicon: Futures prices fluctuated. Xinjiang large factories resumed production slightly this week. In August, the supply may increase marginally by 2 - 3 tons, but due to the large - scale resumption of polysilicon production, industrial silicon may still destock in August [13]. - Organic silicon: Prices fluctuated downward. The overall enterprise start - up rate was 77.4%, and the weekly output was 5.12 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.11%. It is expected that prices will oscillate weakly [14]. - Polysilicon: Futures prices fluctuated. In August, production is expected to increase to 12.5 - 13 tons, resulting in a monthly surplus of 1.5 - 2 tons. The first - stage price control of the "anti - involution" is basically determined, and attention should be paid to the follow - up progress [15]. - Silicon wafers: Prices remained stable. The inventory of silicon wafer factories increased. In August, the expected production was 53GW, and it may increase to 57 - 58GW in the next two weeks. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate [16]. - Battery cells: Prices remained stable. The inventory of photovoltaic battery export factories decreased. In August, the production of Chinese enterprises' domestic batteries was about 58GW. Prices are expected to oscillate [17]. - Components: Prices oscillated. In August, the production of components did not decrease significantly, and the subsequent production may continue to increase. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the follow - up bidding situation [18]. - New delivery brands: Xinjiang Gerns Energy Technology Co., Ltd. and Xinjiang Qiya Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. were added as polysilicon futures registered brands, applicable to PS2511 and subsequent contracts. The new brands may have an impact on PS2512 and subsequent contracts [19]. 3.3 Investment Advice - Industrial silicon: Recommend a buy - on - dips strategy in the short - term, with risks in large - factory resumption and polysilicon production cuts [4]. - Polysilicon: Unilateral trading should adopt a bullish view on pullbacks. Consider buying PS2511 contracts on dips or selling out - of - the - money put options. Pay attention to the 9 - 12 positive spread arbitrage opportunity [4]. 3.4 Hot News - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added two polysilicon futures registered brands [22]. - The US launched a second sunset review investigation on Chinese crystalline silicon photovoltaic products [23]. 3.5 Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - Industrial silicon: Includes data on spot prices, weekly production, and inventory [25][27][32]. - Organic silicon: Covers data on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, inventory, and weekly production [34][35]. - Polysilicon: Involves data on spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory inventory, and enterprise weekly production [40][43]. - Silicon wafers: Contains data on spot prices, average net profits, factory inventory, and enterprise weekly production [44][46][47]. - Battery cells: Comprises data on spot prices, average net profits, export factory inventory, and enterprise monthly production [49][51][54]. - Components: Includes data on spot prices, average net profits, factory inventory, and enterprise monthly production [57][59][60].