KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-08-10 12:10Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The short-term pressure on the liquor industry does not change its long-term value, and new consumption is expected to regain market prominence [4] - The food and beverage index increased by 0.6% from August 4 to August 8, ranking 23rd among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.6 percentage points [12][14] - The snack food sector, soft drinks, and meat products showed relatively strong performance with increases of 3.9%, 3.0%, and 2.7% respectively [12][14] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The liquor sector faced significant challenges in Q2 due to the ongoing impact of the "ban on alcohol" and a struggling restaurant industry, leading to slower cash flow and increased inventory for liquor companies [4][12] - Market expectations for the liquor sector are currently low, with low valuations and a favorable chip structure, indicating potential for recovery post-Mid-Autumn Festival [4][12] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector underperformed the broader market, with the index rising by 0.6% while the leading sub-sectors were snacks, soft drinks, and meat products [12][14] - Notable individual stock performances included ST Xifa, Ximai Food, and Jinzi Ham leading in gains, while *ST Yedao, Ketaobiology, and Beiyinmei faced declines [12][14] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, with the price of fresh milk at 3.0 CNY/kg, down 5.6% year-on-year, while pork prices were 20.4 CNY/kg, down 21.2% year-on-year [19][26] - The price of full-fat milk powder increased by 23.1% year-on-year, indicating a mixed trend in dairy prices [23] Liquor Industry News - The launch of the commemorative Maotai Five-Star trademark liquor sold out quickly, generating sales of 179 million CNY [40] - New product releases, such as the "Bull Market" super beer by Zhenjiu Lidu, highlight innovation in the liquor sector [39] Memorandum - Attention is drawn to the upcoming half-year report from Guizhou Maotai on August 13, which is expected to provide further insights into the company's performance [41][44]