美国7月CPI前瞻：商品价格抬升或推动CPI环比走高

Group 1: CPI Expectations - July CPI is expected to rise, with Bloomberg analysts predicting a month-on-month increase of +0.2% and a year-on-year increase of +2.8%[2] - Core CPI is forecasted to increase by +0.3% month-on-month and +3.0% year-on-year[2] - The Federal Reserve's Inflation Nowcasting predicts a month-on-month increase of +0.16% for CPI and +0.24% for core CPI, with year-on-year increases of +2.72% and +3.04% respectively[2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The expectation of a rate cut has increased due to geopolitical easing, leading to a rise in U.S. stock markets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gaining 2.43% and 3.87% respectively[3] - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 6.7 basis points to 4.283% and the 2-year yield rising by 8.1 basis points to 3.762%[3] - The dollar index decreased by 0.97% to 98.18, while spot gold prices rose by 1.02% to $3,397 per ounce[3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI for July recorded at 50.1, below the expected 51.5, indicating a slowdown in service sector growth[3] - New orders fell to 50.3 and the employment index dropped to 46.4, suggesting weakening demand in the services sector[3] - The New York Fed's consumer survey indicated a one-year inflation expectation of 3.09%, up from 3.02%[3] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - The implementation of tariffs may lead to further inflationary pressures, with the potential for CPI to rise in the coming months[4] - There is a risk that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts could lead to an inflation rebound if executed too aggressively[4] - The nomination of Stephen Milan to the Federal Reserve Board may increase internal disagreements regarding future interest rate paths[3]