全球资产配置每周聚焦（20250802-20250809）：特朗普提名美联储理事，全球资金定价宽松预期-20250810

Economic Indicators - The US added 73,000 non-farm jobs in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%[3] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is now at 88.90%, up from 80.30% the previous week[3] Market Trends - Global stock markets mostly rose this week, driven by expectations of monetary easing following Trump's nomination of Stephen Moore to the Federal Reserve[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 4 basis points to 4.27%, while the US dollar index slightly declined, remaining below 100[3] Fund Flows - In the past week, overseas active funds saw an outflow of $0.96 million, while passive funds experienced a larger outflow of $3.44 million from the Chinese market[17] - Domestic funds also faced outflows, with $0.50 million leaving the market, and foreign funds withdrawing $4.40 million[17] Valuation Metrics - The equity risk premium (ERP) for all A-shares decreased from 64% to 62%, while the Shanghai Composite Index's ERP fell from 57% to 53%[3] - The risk-adjusted returns for the S&P 500 increased from the 48th percentile to the 55th percentile, indicating improved performance expectations[3] Sector Performance - In the US market, funds flowed into the communication, technology, and utilities sectors, while energy, healthcare, and financial sectors saw outflows[3] - In the Chinese market, funds flowed into financials, consumer, and technology sectors, with outflows from infrastructure, real estate, and healthcare[3]