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申万宏源交运一周天地汇:制裁效果初现伊朗俄油发货减少需重视,快递反内卷或进入新阶段
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-10 12:42

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the logistics and transportation industry, particularly highlighting the express delivery sector and shipping companies [1][3]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of price increases, with significant price adjustments observed, particularly in Guangdong, which may spread to other regions. Three scenarios are proposed for this new phase: 1) elimination of price disparities leading to profit recovery and substantial dividends; 2) continuation of competitive dynamics in many regions; 3) potential for higher-level mergers and acquisitions [3]. - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing robust profitability, with Yangtze River Shipbuilding reporting a gross margin of 35% and a net margin of 32.5% for the first half of 2025, prompting recommendations for companies like China Shipbuilding and China Heavy Industry [3]. - Recent geopolitical pressures have led to a decline in oil exports from Iran and Russia to India, which may increase compliance demand and VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) demand as a substitute for smaller tankers. Iran's oil exports have dropped to around 1.2 million barrels per day recently [3]. - VLCC freight rates have surged by 52% week-on-week, reaching $34,679 per day, indicating a potential end to the seasonal downturn in the market [3]. - The report highlights the resilience of railway freight volumes and highway truck traffic, with national railway freight at 77.69 million tons and highway truck traffic at 52.59 million vehicles for the week of July 28 to August 3 [3]. Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery sector has seen a price increase of 4.34%, outperforming other sub-sectors [4][5]. - Companies recommended include Shentong Express and YTO Express, with a focus on Jitu Express, Zhongtong Express, and Yunda Express [3]. Shipping - The report notes a significant increase in VLCC rates, with a 9.34% rise in the crude oil tanker index [4]. - Recommendations include China Shipbuilding and China Heavy Industry due to strong performance in the shipbuilding sector [3]. Air Transportation - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" policy in civil aviation may optimize industry competition, benefiting airline profitability in the long term [3]. - Recommended airlines include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [3]. Railway and Highway - The report indicates steady growth in railway and highway freight volumes, with a focus on high-dividend investment opportunities in the highway sector [3]. - The establishment of a new railway company under the China National Railway Group is noted as a positive development [3]. High Dividend Stocks - The report lists high dividend stocks in the transportation sector, including Bohai Ferry with a dividend yield of 8.46% and Zhonggu Logistics at 7.53% [3][21].