Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-10 12:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for the sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in metal prices, with the non-ferrous metals index rising by 5.78% over the past week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.55 percentage points [4][5]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to continue their upward trend due to increased central bank purchases and a shift in market sentiment towards safety over yield [4][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-demand dynamics in the copper and aluminum markets, with expectations of price increases driven by stable demand and constrained supply [4][47]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.11%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.25% [5]. - The non-ferrous metals index has increased by 32.00% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 27.68 percentage points [8]. - Key segments such as precious metals and copper saw significant weekly gains, with precious metals up 8.04% and copper up 6.71% [9]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals experienced price increases, with LME copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc prices rising by 1.37%, 1.68%, 1.83%, and 3.67% respectively [14]. - The report notes a decrease in lithium prices, with battery-grade lithium carbonate down by 9.87% [14]. Inventory Changes - Copper inventories at LME increased by 9.95% week-on-week, while COMEX inventories rose by 1.72% [17]. - Aluminum social inventory remained stable at 56.4 thousand tons, with a slight increase in total aluminum inventory [47]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides valuations for key companies in the sector, with Zijin Mining priced at 20.54 CNY per share and a projected PE ratio of 26 for 2023 [18]. - Other notable companies include Shandong Gold at 32.88 CNY per share with a PE ratio of 63, and Huayou Cobalt at 43.81 CNY per share with a PE ratio of 22 [18]. Precious Metals Analysis - The report indicates that the SPRD+iShares gold ETF holdings increased by 0.7% to 1412 tons, reflecting growing investor confidence [21]. - The Chinese central bank's continued gold purchases are expected to support gold prices, with the current official reserve standing at 7396 tons [21]. Copper Market Insights - The report notes that the current copper spot price is 37.98 USD per dry ton, with domestic social inventory increasing to 132,000 tons [32]. - The operating rates for electrolytic copper rods and wire and cable production are reported at 68.9% and 69.9% respectively, indicating stable demand [32]. Aluminum Market Insights - The report highlights that the average price of A00 aluminum in Shanghai is 20,650 CNY per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.63% [47]. - The operating rate for aluminum processing enterprises has risen to 58.70%, indicating a recovery in demand [47]. Steel Market Insights - The report indicates a slight decrease in rebar prices, with the current price at 3330 CNY per ton, while hot-rolled coil prices increased to 3440 CNY per ton [72].