原油周报：俄美谈判扰动，油价回落-20250810

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical factors such as Russia - US negotiations have recently caused many disturbances, leading to a short - term decline in oil prices. However, the overall good performance of crude oil processing demand and the weak actual production increase of OPEC+ support oil prices. The supply side has uncertainties, and the demand side shows an overall upward trend with stable growth [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly View and Strategy - Inventory: Last week, US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3 million barrels to 423.7 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.3 million barrels to 227.1 million barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 565,000 barrels to 113 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory in Oklahoma increased by 453,000 barrels [4][20]. - Supply: US crude oil production remained at 13.3 million barrels per day. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, and 8 OPEC+ countries are expected to increase production by a cumulative 2.467 million barrels per day from April to September. Since 2022, OPEC+ has cut production by 5.85 million barrels per day, about 5.7% of global supply. The supply side has uncertainties [4][33]. - Demand: US refinery crude oil processing volume increased by 213,000 barrels per day to 17.124 million barrels per day, and the capacity utilization rate rose by 1.5 percentage points to 96.9%. Gasoline demand decreased by 112,000 barrels per day but remained above 9 million barrels per day. In June, China's industrial crude oil processing increased year - on - year, and the demand side is expected to rise steadily [4]. - View: Geopolitical factors have led to a short - term decline in oil prices, but good processing demand and weak OPEC+ production increase support oil prices. The supply - side production increase progress needs to be observed, and the demand side is expected to be boosted [4]. - Strategy: Buy operations [4] 3.2. Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It provides detailed data on global crude oil production, consumption, inventory net withdrawals, and end - of - period inventories from 2024 to 2025, including breakdowns by OPEC, non - OPEC, OECD, and non - OECD regions [6]. - Industrial Chain Structure: It shows the processing flow of crude oil from the atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit to various refined products such as ethylene, propylene, diesel, and gasoline [9] 3.3. Futures and Spot Market - Futures - Spot Structure: It presents data on domestic and foreign price differences, monthly price differences, INE crude oil futures - spot price differences, and BRENT crude oil term price differences [11][13][15] - Freight Index and Port Freight Rates: It shows the trends of the crude oil transportation index (BDTI), the refined oil transportation index (BCTI), and port freight rates [16] 3.4. Inventory - US Crude Oil Inventory: Last week, due to increased exports, US crude oil inventory decreased, and the net import volume also decreased [4][20]. - China Crude Oil Inventory: In June, the inventory increment declined because of the increase in domestic crude oil processing demand [25]. - Crude Oil Warehouse Receipts: The INE crude oil warehouse receipts have recently remained at a low level, indicating a low inventory level of deliverable oil depots [29] 3.5. Supply Side - OPEC Production: In June, OPEC+ daily crude oil production was 41.559 million barrels, an increase of 349,000 barrels from May but lower than the planned increase. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and the 8 - country production increase plan from April to September is 2.467 million barrels per day [33]. - US Production: Last week, US crude oil production remained at 13.3 million barrels per day. The growth space of US shale oil production is limited, and the production may enter a bottleneck period [38]. - Global Production: The supply side has uncertainties, including the uncertain OPEC+ production increase process, the impact of sanctions on Russian and Venezuelan crude oil, and the limited growth of US shale oil production [42] 3.6. Demand Side - China Demand: In June, China's industrial crude oil processing increased year - on - year. With the boost of travel demand, China's crude oil demand is expected to recover. China's crude oil imports and exports data from January to July 2025 are also provided [49][54][57]. - US Demand: US refinery crude oil processing volume increased, the capacity utilization rate rose, and gasoline demand remained above 9 million barrels per day. The US is in the driving season, and demand is slightly better than last year [61][64]