巴西升贴水持续上涨，豆菜粕价格或震荡偏强

Report Title - "Hualian Futures Feed Weekly Report: Brazilian Premiums Rising Continuously, Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Prices May Fluctuate Strongly" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current growth of US soybeans is good, but the rainfall in the eastern part of the Corn Belt and the northern part of the Great Plains in the next two weeks may affect soybean growth [3]. - It is currently the peak season for Brazilian soybean exports, and Brazilian soybean premiums are continuously rising and are currently at a historical high [3]. - Domestic oil mills' purchasing progress for the fourth quarter is still slow, and the market expects a supply gap. This week, there was a large - volume transaction of the far - month basis of soybean meal. The long - term impact of the pig industry's anti - involution on soybean meal demand also needs attention [3]. - Against the background of an expected supply gap of imported soybeans in the domestic market in the fourth quarter, domestic soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Viewpoints - As of August 3, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, which was the same as the market expectation, lower than last week's 70% and last year's 68% [3]. - The Brazilian soybean premium is rising and is at a historical high [3]. - Domestic oil mills' purchasing for the fourth quarter is slow, and there are expectations of a supply gap. The far - month basis of soybean meal had large - volume transactions this week. The long - term impact of the pig industry's anti - involution on soybean meal demand needs attention [3]. - Domestic soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the expected supply gap in the fourth quarter [3]. Strategy Viewpoints and Outlook - For unilateral trading, the support level of soybean meal 2601 can be referenced at 3000. For options, one can go long on volatility [5]. - For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see for now [5]. - In the outlook, factors to watch include the weather in US soybean - producing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, domestic soybean meal demand, and China - Canada and China - US trade relations. Overall, soybean and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5]. Industrial Chain Structure - Futures and Spot Markets - Last week, soybean meal futures fluctuated strongly due to market concerns about a shortage of soybeans in the domestic market in the fourth quarter [14]. - The July USDA report was slightly bearish. It lowered the export forecast of US soybeans for the 25/26 season and raised the domestic crushing volume. The reduction in exports was higher than the increase in crushing, resulting in an increase in ending stocks from 295 million bushels in June to 310 million bushels [14]. - The soybean - rapeseed meal spread fluctuated widely and is currently at a historically low level. It is advisable to wait and see [18]. - The 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal fluctuated weakly. It is advisable to wait and see [21]. Supply Side - As of July 31, 2025, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the market year was 467,842 tons [30]. - As of August 1, 2025, the weekly US soybean crushing profit was $2.71 per bushel, a 1.88% increase from the previous week and a 19.58% decrease from the same period last year [36]. - In June 2025, China imported 12.264 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 1.6544 million tons from May and a 10.35% increase from June 2024. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports were 49.37 million tons, a 1.83% increase year - on - year [39]. Demand Side - The report presents data on pig prices, pig - grain ratios, pig self - breeding and外购 profits, white - feather broiler and laying - hen breeding profits, but no specific demand - related conclusions are drawn [54][63] Inventory - As of August 1, the national port soybean inventory was 6.5559 million tons, a 1.55% increase from last week and a 1.74% decrease from last year. The domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory was 1.0416 million tons, a 0.14% decrease from last week and a 26.24% decrease from last year [70]. - As of August 8, the physical inventory days of domestic feed mills' soybean meal were 8.37 days, a 3.77% increase from August 1 and a 14.97% increase from the same period last year [73]. - As of August 1, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 116,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from last week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 27,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from last week. The unexecuted contracts were 46,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from last week [75]