短期缺乏驱动，油脂走势或分化

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the expected inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in July and the positive impact of overseas biodiesel policies, domestic oils and fats are expected to show a differentiated short - term trend. Soybean oil is expected to be strong, while rapeseed oil and palm oil may fluctuate repeatedly [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental View - Soybean oil: Weather forecasts indicate less rainfall in the eastern corn belt and northern Great Plains in the next two weeks, which may affect soybean growth. The US biodiesel policy is long - term positive for US soybean oil demand, Brazil has raised the biodiesel blending ratio as expected, and the implementation of Indonesia's B40 is going well, all of which are positive for domestic oils and fats [6]. - Palm oil: MPOA data shows that the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 31 increased by 9.01%. Reuters survey predicts that the inventory in July will be 2.25 million tons, an increase of 10.8% from June; production is expected to be 1.83 million tons, an increase of 8% from June; and exports are expected to be 1.3 million tons, an increase of 3.2% from June. High - frequency data shows increased production and decreased exports in July, and the market expects a high probability of inventory build - up. Attention should be paid to the July MPOB report [6]. - Rapeseed oil: Recently, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory has decreased slightly but remains at a historically high level. The trade relationship between China and Australia has improved, and China may import rapeseed from Australia later, which requires attention [6]. 3.2 Strategy View and Outlook - Unilateral: It is recommended that the support level for palm oil 01 be around 8,500, and for soybean oil 01 around 8,000. For options, it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - Arbitrage: It is advisable to wait and see [8]. - Outlook: Key points to watch include biodiesel policies of various countries, the production and export of Southeast Asian palm oil, China's rapeseed import policy, and the price of crude oil. Overall, oils and fats may show a differentiated short - term trend [8]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Structure - Futures and Spot Market - Last week, oils and fats fluctuated strongly, mainly due to domestic enterprises exporting soybean oil to India [17]. - The soybean - palm oil spread fluctuated widely and is currently at a historical low; the rapeseed - palm oil spread fluctuated weakly; the rapeseed - soybean oil spread fluctuated widely. It is recommended to wait and see for all [20]. 3.4 Supply Side - Malaysian palm oil: According to the June MPOB report, Malaysia's crude palm oil production in June was 1.6923 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.48%; palm oil imports were 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.51%; palm oil exports were 1.2594 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.52%; and the ending inventory was 2.0306 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.41%. The report is neutral to bearish [33]. - Domestic soybean and soybean oil: As of August 1, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.1174 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,300 tons, or 2.69%. Year - on - year, it decreased by 8,600 tons, or 0.76% [65]. - Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil: As of August 1, 2025, the rapeseed inventory in major coastal oil mills was 116,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from last week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 106,500 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from last week; and the unexecuted contracts were 96,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from last week [68]. - Domestic palm oil: As of August 1, 2025 (week 31), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 582,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,300 tons, or 5.41%. Year - on - year, it increased by 3,400 tons, or 0.59% [65]. 3.5 Demand Side - No specific demand - side analysis content other than showing the volume charts of various oils and fats is provided 3.6 Inventory - As of August 1, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.1174 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.76%. The national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 582,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.41% and a year - on - year increase of 0.59% [65]. - As of August 1, 2025, coastal major oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 116,000 tons (down 21,000 tons from last week), rapeseed oil inventory was 106,500 tons (up 11,000 tons from last week), and unexecuted contracts were 96,000 tons (down 6,000 tons from last week) [68]. 3.7 Disk Import Profit - As of August 8, 2025, the disk import profit of 24 - degree palm oil for the August shipment was - 204 yuan/ton [73].