能源化工周报合集-20250810

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Naphtha and Ethylene - The contradiction of naphtha in the second half of the year lies in the dual increase of supply and demand. The supply side is affected by OPEC's production increase and new refining capacity, while the demand side is driven by new cracking devices. Near - term ethylene cracking profit is greatly influenced by crude oil. Ethylene is expected to shift from a short - term tight supply - demand situation to an oversupply in the fourth quarter [9]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The price weakness of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil is difficult to change in the short term. The supply of the fuel oil market is generally loose, and the low - sulfur fuel oil supply in the Asia - Pacific market is expected to increase. Domestic low - sulfur fuel oil prices are also under pressure, but the new export quota may support the price [160]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Naphtha Part - Supply: With OPEC's production increase, the Middle East export center has risen. Russian exports are expected to remain stable, and the arbitrage cargo in Asia will decrease after September [9]. - Demand: Weekly Northeast Asian naphtha imports have decreased, but ethylene cracking profit has rebounded, and propane cracking economy has weakened, which is beneficial to the increase of naphtha demand [9]. - Price and Valuation: Asian gasoline - naphtha spread is 64 dollars/ton (+6 dollars/ton), European gasoline - naphtha spread is 143 dollars/ton (+7 dollars/ton), and Asian aromatics reforming profit is 27 dollars/ton (+11 dollars/ton) [9]. - Balance Sheet: The supply side may see a slight reduction in arbitrage cargo, and the demand side is expected to increase. The market is expected to continue de - stocking in the long term [91]. Ethylene Part - Global Capacity and Logistics: In 2025, the growth of global ethylene cracking capacity is mainly concentrated in China. Asia is the main pricing area, with clear import and export routes [107][109]. - Price and Profit: This week, the domestic ethylene price rebounded, and the profit of downstream derivatives was compressed. Overseas ethylene derivatives' profit was in a low - level shock [110][116]. - Balance Sheet: The supply and demand of domestic ethylene increased this week. The supply - demand relationship in September will tighten, but it will gradually ease after October [135]. Olefin - Aromatic Association - Aromatic Relative Valuation: This week, with the significant decline of crude oil, the relative valuation of downstream aromatics to upstream has rebounded. Overseas aromatic valuation has increased, and the spread with Asia has slightly widened [144][148]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Supply: The global fuel oil supply is generally loose. Middle East exports are expected to increase in August, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific market is expected to rise [160]. - Demand: The port bunkering demand for low - sulfur fuel oil in China is weak, and the demand in the Singapore market is also sluggish [160]. - Inventory: The Singapore market has entered a high - inventory state, and the spot digestion is difficult [160]. - Price and Spread: The price of fuel oil continues to decline, and the LU's previous strength has further weakened. The FU and LU's near - term contango structure will continue [160].