黑色金属周报合集-20250810
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-10 12:49
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: Market sentiment has cooled, and attention should be paid to the risk of price corrections. The anti - involution sentiment has eased, and the expected positive - feedback trading has weakened. The black产业链 shows that the demand for steel in the off - season remains flat, with good profits and low inventory. The downward trend of hot metal is slow, and the negative - feedback transmission is not smooth [6][8]. - Iron Ore: Carbon elements are absorbing the profits of the steel chain again, and the ore price is fluctuating within a narrow range. Although overseas shipments have declined slightly, downstream demand remains high. Policy factors may tilt the profit distribution towards carbon elements, but the ore price has strong support [75][77]. - Coal and Coke: The supply expectation remains tight, and the prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term. Supply disruptions have occurred, and the market's expectation of further tightening of the fundamentals is strengthening. The expected improvement in corporate profits due to anti - involution policies is still strong [126][127]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Rebar - Basis and Spread: The spread is approaching the risk - free window. Anti - arbitrage should take profit, and attention should be paid to positive arbitrage. Last week, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was 3340 yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 127 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 73 yuan/ton [17][20]. - Demand: New housing transactions remain at a low level, indicating weak market confidence. The demand is in the off - season, and indicators such as cement shipments have declined seasonally. High profits have stimulated steel mills to resume production, leading to an accumulation of steel inventory [21][25][27]. - Production Profit: Due to the revision of anti - involution policy expectations, the profits of steel mills have decreased. Last week, the spot profit of rebar was 289 yuan/ton, and the profit of the main contract was 249 yuan/ton [34][38]. 3.1.2 Hot - Rolled Coil - Basis and Spread: Anti - arbitrage should take profit and focus on positive arbitrage. Last week, the spot price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3450 yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 22 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 1 yuan/ton [40][44]. - Demand: The demand has weakened month - on - month. The US has imposed tariffs on steel household appliances, and the production of white goods has entered the off - season. The internal - external price difference has converged, and the export window has closed. Speculative demand has declined, and inventory accumulation has accelerated [45][48][51]. - Production Profit: Due to the revision of anti - involution policy expectations, the profits of steel mills have decreased. Last week, the spot profit of hot - rolled coil was 231 yuan/ton, and the profit of the main contract was 314 yuan/ton [58]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Supply: Overseas shipments have decreased slightly, with Vale and Fortescue contributing the main decline. The shipments of non - mainstream countries have increased month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines in North China is still low [76][90][98]. - Demand: The decline in hot metal is small, and the output of the five major steel products is still significantly higher than that of the same period last year. The arrival volume of scrap steel is higher than the same period, and the scrap - iron price difference has further decreased [101][103]. - Inventory: The total port inventory has increased slightly, and the pellet inventory is still being rapidly depleted [107][109]. - Contract and Spot Performance: The price of the main 09 contract has been fluctuating strongly, and the spot price has basically followed the futures price, with high - grade ore prices performing relatively strongly [79][83]. - Downstream Profit: The prices of coking coal and coke are strong, and the profit indicators of steel products have declined from high levels [111]. - Price Spread: The import high - medium grade price spread and the domestic - PB price spread have continued to widen. The 9 - 1 spread has continued to narrow, and the basis of the 01 and 05 contracts has narrowed below the level of the same period last year [113][116][119]. 3.3 Coal and Coke - Supply: Supply disruptions have occurred. The output of Fenwei raw coal has decreased slightly, and the average daily vehicle clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port of Mongolian coal remains above 1000 vehicles [128]. - Demand: The sentiment in the spot market is still cautious. Although the futures market is strong, downstream and speculative trading is relatively cautious, but the hot metal output remains at a relatively high level [128]. - Macro: The latest CPI data has increased month - on - month, and the year - on - year increase has decreased. The month - on - month decline in PPI has narrowed, but the year - on - year decline has widened. Anti - involution policies have continued to be implemented in multiple industries, which may improve the market's expectations for the future profits and demand of steel - related downstream industries [128].