Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the broader market opened slightly lower and trended upward, reaching a new high for the year. All four major indices rose, with small-cap stock indices performing strongly. The style indices also all increased, with the cyclical index having the largest gain of nearly 3.5%. Most industries in the Shenwan classification rose, with military, non-ferrous metals, machinery, and comprehensive sectors leading the gains, all with over 5% increases, while only a few sectors like pharmaceutical biology, computer, commercial trade, and tourism posted small losses [4][11][13]. - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the non-manufacturing PMI was 50%, down 0.1 percentage points. Supply and demand both declined, with production down 0.6%, new orders down 0.8%, and new export orders down 0.6%. The inventory of finished products decreased again after a one - month increase. Prices of factory - made goods and major raw material purchases increased for two consecutive months after three months of decline [4][23]. - The Politburo set the tone for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, and to boost the capital market. The central bank created two new monetary policy tools, cut the reserve requirement ratio, and lowered interest rates, including reducing the interest rates of existing mortgages. The CSRC proposed measures for mergers, acquisitions, and market value management to increase market activity. An implementation plan for promoting the entry of long - term funds into the market was officially released, which is expected to bring an additional 800 billion yuan of long - term funds to the A - share market annually [4]. - In terms of revenue, the revenue growth rates of the ChiNext, ChiNext, and CSI 500 indices increased, while those of the CSI 1000, Shanghai Composite, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices declined. In terms of net profit attributable to the parent company, except for the Shanghai Composite Index, the net profit growth rates of other indices all increased significantly. Although the performance of the entire A - share market shows signs of stabilization, the 30% increase in tariffs imposed by the US since the second quarter of 2025 may affect the fundamentals of the A - share market, and the A - share performance may bottom out again [4]. - The broader market was oscillating at a high level last Friday, reaching a new high for the year and approaching last year's high. As the August 12 tariff deadline approaches, attention should be paid to whether the tariffs can be extended as scheduled. Overall, the market may need to oscillate and consolidate near the previous high. However, with the stabilization of the net profit attributable to the parent company of the entire A - share market and the four major indices in the first quarter, as well as long - term policy and capital support, the stock index is still optimistic in the long - term. Technically, the broader market has been rising continuously, reaching a new high for the year and is expected to break through the previous high. In the short - term, attention should be paid to whether the Sino - US tariffs will be extended. Operationally, it is advisable to go long on pullbacks in the medium - term, and for options, a bull spread strategy can be considered [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Index Industry Trends Review - Last week, the broader market opened slightly lower and trended upward, hitting a new high for the year. All four major indices rose, with small - cap stock indices outperforming [11] - All style indices rose last week, with the cyclical index having the largest gain of nearly 3.5%, followed by growth, financial, stable, and consumer style indices. Most industries in the Shenwan classification rose, with military, non - ferrous metals, machinery, and comprehensive sectors leading the gains, all with over 5% increases. Only a few sectors like pharmaceutical biology, computer, commercial trade, and tourism posted small losses [13] Main Contract and Basis Trends - The four major indices attacked again, with the CSI 1000 breaking through last year's high first. In terms of the basis, the discount of the 08 contract continued to narrow within a reasonable range [16] - In terms of the arbitrage of main contracts, IC/IF and IC/IH oscillated upwards, IH/IF fluctuated, and IM/IF and IM/IH oscillated upwards [20] Policy and Economy - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50%, down 0.1 percentage points. Supply and demand both declined, with production down 0.6%, new orders down 0.8%, and new export orders down 0.6%. The inventory of finished products decreased again after a one - month increase. Prices of factory - made goods and major raw material purchases increased for two consecutive months after three months of decline [23] - Generally, PPI leads the inventory cycle (by 1 month to 1 year, with an average of about half a year). PPI bottomed out and rebounded in June 2023, weakened after two months, and has seen a continuous narrowing of the decline since March 2024. The decline of PPI widened again in July, narrowed again since November until it widened for four consecutive months from March 2025, and remained the same as the previous month in July. In May, the revenue of industrial enterprises continued to decline to 2.7%, and the inventory decreased by 3.5%, indicating a possible entry into the active inventory replenishment stage, corresponding to an economic slowdown [25] - In June 2025, the year - on - year increase in social financing was 419.93 billion yuan, compared with 22.46 billion yuan in the previous period. Government bonds increased by 135.48 billion yuan, and RMB loans increased by 236.37 billion yuan, with an year - on - year increase of 17.1 billion yuan, mainly due to an increase of 17 billion yuan in enterprise loans, including an increase of 49 billion yuan in short - term loans and a rebound in medium - and long - term loans [27] - The growth rate of medium - and long - term credit has been declining for 25 consecutive months to 6.77% as of June 2025, down from the high of 12.94% in May 2023. The growth rate last month was 6.78%, and the decline rate has slowed down significantly [30] - The implementation plan for promoting the entry of long - term funds into the market aims to increase the actual investment ratio, extend the assessment period, and strengthen the synergy of policies. It is expected to bring additional long - term funds to the A - share market annually, and the second - batch pilot of long - term stock investment by insurance funds will be implemented in the first half of 2025, with a scale of no less than 10 billion yuan [32] - The Politburo meeting emphasized boosting the capital market, promoting the entry of long - term funds, supporting mergers and acquisitions and reorganizations of listed companies, and promoting the reform of public funds. It also called for increasing the counter - cyclical adjustment of fiscal and monetary policies, stabilizing the real estate market, and implementing a series of measures such as reducing the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates [35] - The central bank created new monetary policy tools, including a swap facility for securities, funds, and insurance companies, and a re - loan for stock repurchase and increase. It also carried out MLF operations, reverse repurchase operations, and adjusted interest rates. In addition, a series of measures such as reducing the reserve requirement ratio, lowering policy interest rates, and increasing re - loan quotas were implemented [36][38][40] - The total debt - resolution scale is divided into three parts, with the first two parts directly adding 1 trillion yuan of local debt - resolution funds. After the replacement of implicit debts, the local debt - resolution pressure will be greatly reduced [37] Revenue and Net Profit of Each Index - Except for the CSI 500, the year - on - year revenue growth rates of each index in the 2024 annual report declined. In terms of net profit attributable to the parent company, the SSE 50 index continued to grow year - on - year, the CSI 300 index had a small increase, and the CSI 500, ChiNext, and Shenzhen Component Indexes declined to varying degrees [47] - In terms of revenue, the revenue growth rates of the Shenzhen Component, ChiNext, and CSI 500 indices increased, while those of the CSI 1000, Shanghai Composite, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices declined. In terms of net profit attributable to the parent company, the net profit growth rates of all indices except the Shanghai Composite Index increased significantly [53] - The performance of the entire A - share market shows signs of stabilization, but the 30% increase in tariffs imposed by the US since April may affect the A - share market. In the first quarter of 2025, the performance of IC/IM bottomed out and stabilized, while IH/IF declined year - on - year [57][60] Valuation - The valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is 15.6876, with an upper - bound value of 15.51, and it is at the 78.41 percentile since 2010. The valuation of the ChiNext is still relatively low [66] Capital Flow - From April 7 to August 8, 2025, the ETF scale increased by 34.4 billion yuan, and last week it decreased by 7.3 billion yuan. From January 1 to June 27, 2025, the scale of newly established equity funds increased by 171.3 billion yuan [5][71] - In terms of margin trading, there was a net inflow of 274.8 billion yuan in 2024. As of August 7, 2025, the net inflow in the first five trading days was 27.9 billion yuan, and the net inflow in 2025 was 200.1 billion yuan [79] - In the first quarter of 2025, the market value of A - shares held by insurance funds increased significantly by 389.3 billion yuan, while the CSI 300 index fell by 1.21%. At the end of 2024, the assets of the national team and insurance funds increased, while the assets of the Hong Kong - Shanghai Stock Connect decreased. Specifically, it was mainly the assets of Central Huijin and insurance funds that increased [75] - As of last weekend, the IPO financing in 2023 was 356.5 billion yuan, 67.3 billion yuan in 2024, and 63.7 billion yuan in 2025 [84] - In the week from August 1 to August 8, 2025, the ETF share increased by 36.368 billion shares (+1.33%), reaching 2780.699 billion shares, and the total scale increased by 65.598 billion yuan (+1.43%), reaching 4658.878 billion yuan [88] - Last week, major shareholders in the secondary market continued to have a net reduction of 5.9 billion yuan [92] - There will be a large amount of restricted - share unlockings in mid - August [93]
关注关税是否如期延期
Hua Lian Qi Huo·2025-08-10 13:15