供需有所改善，但成本驱动偏空

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply and demand of PTA are acceptable, but the external market fluctuates greatly, and the valuation drive is weak, with the technical side showing range - bound fluctuations. The cost of crude oil has been falling continuously, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge of the range. TA processing fees continue to weaken, and the losses of downstream products have improved. It is recommended to focus on trading in the 4600 - 4800 range of the 2601 contract [4] Summary by Directory Supply - Last week, the average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate was 76.10%, a decrease of 3.57 percentage points from the previous week and 2.26 percentage points from the same period last year, at a neutral level in the same period. Multiple sets of equipment in the East China region had short - term outages or maintenance, and some enterprises reduced their loads due to efficiency issues, leading to a decrease in the operating rate [4][18] - Last week, PTA production was 136,840 tons, a decrease of 4.03% from the previous week and an increase of 1.66% from the same period last year. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative PTA imports were 14,130 tons, a year - on - year increase of 84.61%. With the gradual increase in domestic self - sufficiency, imports are relatively low and can be basically ignored [22] Demand - In July 2025, the actual PTA consumption was 5.9785 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.28% and a year - on - year increase of 8.78%. Last week, the average polyester operating rate was 86.21%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points from the previous week and 2.08 percentage points from the same period last year, generally at a neutral level in the same period [24] - Last week, the weekly output of the polyester industry was 1.5137 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.68% and a year - on - year increase of 10.29%. As of August 7, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 55.75%, an increase of 0.16 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from the same period last year. Downstream texturing and terminal weaving factories have a strong cautious and wait - and - see attitude, mainly consuming their previous raw material inventories. The sales data of polyester filament have been in a sluggish state [4][26] - From January to June 2025, the cumulative PTA export volume was 1.8568 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.90%. From January to June, the cumulative export value of textiles was 143 million US dollars, the same as the same period last year [45] Inventory - According to Longzhong Information statistics, last week, the PTA industry inventory was about 3.7315 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32%. The PTA factory inventory was 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days from the previous week and 0.15 days from the same period last year [49] - Last week, the PTA raw material inventory of polyester factories was 7.3 days, an increase of 0.3 days from the previous week and a decrease of 0.81 days from the same period last year [51] Futures Market - Last week, the 1 - 5 spread remained stable from the previous week and was weak compared to the same period last year. The 5 - 9 spread increased slightly from the previous week and was high compared to the same period last year. The overall futures monthly spread showed a flat - water structure [11] - The 9 - 1 spread decreased from the previous week and was weak compared to the same period last year. The basis fluctuated and was weak compared to the same period last year [14] Valuation - The PTA spot processing fee continued to decline from the previous week and was weak compared to the same period last year [70] - The PTA futures disk processing fee decreased slightly from the previous week and was low compared to the same period last year [73]