Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - The supply of domestic coal is expected to be constrained in August, and the supply ceiling effect is obvious, making it difficult to return to high - level production. The recovery of domestic coal supply is slow, and the production has decreased week - on - week. Although the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has returned to medium - high levels, it can only partially make up for the reduction of domestic coal. - The demand for coking coal and coke remains strong. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills has increased slightly, and the iron - making water production has only slightly decreased. The profitability of steel mills has improved, and the losses of coking enterprises have narrowed. After the price increase, speculative demand has increased. - The inventory of coking coal and coke continues to decline. The inventory of coal mines, coking plants, and steel mills has different trends, but the overall inventory is decreasing. - It is expected that coking coal and coke will continue to be strong, and the strategy is to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference support level of 1120 yuan/ton [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Viewpoint and Strategy - Supply: Last week, the coal mine start - up rate dropped significantly, and the supply recovery was slow, with production decreasing week - on - week. In August, it is difficult for domestic coal production to return to high levels due to over - production inspections and stricter safety supervision. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has returned to medium - high levels. On August 8, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 73.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.27%, and the daily average output of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 65.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 tons [4]. - Demand: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.29%. The daily average iron - making water production decreased by 0.39 tons to 242.32 tons. The profitability of steel mills was 68.4%, a 3.03% increase from the previous week. The average profit per ton of coke was - 16 yuan/ton, a 29 - yuan increase from the previous week. After the fifth round of price increases for coke, the losses of coking enterprises have narrowed, and the sixth round may be implemented soon. After the price increase, speculative demand has increased [4]. - Inventory: Last week, the inventory of coal mines continued to decline, but the decline rate slowed down. On August 8, the raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 476.52 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.78 tons. The coking coal inventory of coking plants decreased, while that of steel mills continued to rise. The inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills for coke continued to decline, and the port coke inventory increased slightly, with the total coke inventory continuing to decline [4]. - Viewpoint: Last week, there were frequent disturbances on the coal mine supply side. Under the influence of policies, domestic coal production will be restricted, and the supply contraction expectation has boosted market sentiment. The rigid demand for coking coal and coke remains strong, and speculative demand has increased after the price increase. It is expected that coking coal and coke will continue to be strong [4]. - Strategy: Go long on the coking coal 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference support level of 1120 yuan/ton [4]. Industrial Chain Structure - Futures and Spot Markets: The report presents multiple charts of coking coal and coke futures contracts, including the DCE jm2509, jm2601, j2509, j2601 contracts, as well as the price trends of coking coal and coke spot, and the price differences between contracts [9][14][19][26]. - Inventory: It shows the inventory trends of coking coal (including washing plants, mines, ports, steel mills, and coking enterprises) and coke (including coking enterprises, steel mills, and ports) from 2021 to 2025 [33][42]. - Supply Side: - Coking Coal Import: Displays the monthly import volume of coking coal from the world, Mongolia, Australia, and Russia to China from 2021 to 2025 [52]. - Washing Coal Production: Presents the start - up rate and daily average output of 110 washing plants from 2021 to 2025 [57]. - Coking Production: On August 8, the capacity utilization rate of 230 coking enterprises was 73.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.27%, and the daily average output of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 65.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 tons [61]. - Steel Mill Coke Production: The current capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke is 86.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.32%, and the daily average output is 46.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 tons [64]. - Demand Side: - Hot Metal and Operating Rate: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.29%, and the daily average iron - making water production decreased by 0.39 tons to 242.32 tons [68]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The report shows the production and consumption trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2021 to 2025 [69][71]. - Long - Process and Short - Process: Displays the production trends of long - process and short - process rebar from 2021 to 2025 [77]. - Steel Mill and Coke Profit per Ton: As of August 8, 2025, the profitability of 247 steel mills was 68.4%, a 3.03% increase from the previous week. The average profit per ton of coke was - 16 yuan/ton, a 29 - yuan increase from the previous week [82].
煤矿供应预期收缩，双焦偏强震荡
Hua Lian Qi Huo·2025-08-10 13:24