国泰君安期货能源化工石油沥青周度报告-20250810

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The current shipment boost is limited, and the short - term valuation of asphalt may remain neutral to weak. Attention should be paid to the start of peak - season demand and the trend of oil prices [4]. - The strategy includes a weak and volatile unilateral market, taking profit on reverse spreads in the inter - period market, and no suggestion for the inter - variety market [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Supply: The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 31.7%, a 1.4% decline from the previous week. Although some refineries increased production or resumed production, others switched to producing residue oil or reduced production, leading to the decline [4]. - Demand: The sharp drop in crude oil prices increased the wait - and - see sentiment, and the enthusiasm for asphalt procurement declined. In Shandong, terminal demand was weak, and prices were under pressure to stimulate sales. In East China, some areas were affected by rain, and actual demand was lower than expected. Social inventory increased due to the concentrated arrival of postponed ship cargoes after a typhoon [4]. - Valuation: During the week, BU fluctuated downward following crude oil. The average weekly price of domestic asphalt was 3,754 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period. The price fluctuated between 3,741 - 3,768 yuan/ton, with a wider range. Three regions saw price drops, two regions had price increases, and two regions had stable prices. The largest decline was in North China, and the largest increase was in Southwest China [4]. 3.2 Price & Spread - Cost Structure: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. There are also considerations regarding raw material supply, import and export policies, exchange rates, and freight. Different types of crude oil have different asphalt yields, with Ma Rui crude oil having a yield of 55% - 60% [7]. - Futures and Spot Prices: The report presents data on futures - disk prices, trading volume, and positions, as well as spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt and Ma Rui crude oil in different regions [11][12]. - Spread: It shows the basis and monthly spread data, including the basis in Shandong, North China, and the Yangtze River Delta regions, and the monthly spread between different contract months [16][19][20]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Demand - Consumption Distribution: Asphalt demand is mainly from the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), the waterproof market, the ship - fuel market, the coking market, and the export market. Seasonal factors also have an impact, although the impact of some markets is relatively small [23]. - Shipment and Capacity Utilization: From July 30 to August 5, 2025, the total shipment of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 418,000 tons, a 0.2% decrease from the previous week. Shandong's shipment decreased significantly due to reduced supply and weak demand, while East China's shipment increased due to high - load production and good shipping after the weather improved. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 15.9%, a 0.3% decrease from the previous week but a 2.8% increase year - on - year. In East China, the capacity utilization rate decreased due to weather and capital constraints [27]. 3.3.2 Supply - Supply Pattern: Domestic asphalt supply comes from domestic refineries (including state - owned and local refineries) and imports. Refineries are divided by region and attribute, and imports mainly come from South Korea and Singapore. Key supply indicators include inventory, production profit, maintenance plans, and monthly production schedules [29]. - Production, Maintenance, and Raw Materials: The weekly total production of domestic asphalt was 561,000 tons, a 1.1% decrease from the previous week but a 25.8% increase year - on - year. As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt refineries was 717,000 tons, a 0.7% decrease from August 4. The total inventory of 104 domestic social asphalt warehouses was 1,872,000 tons, a 0.3% decrease from August 4. East China's refinery inventory decreased significantly, while its social inventory increased significantly due to the concentrated arrival of postponed ship cargoes after a typhoon [32]. - Start - up and Inventory: The report provides data on the weekly start - up rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions and the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries in different regions [35][46].